The math(s)

Only increased the chances by 2.5%

If we assume the 5% market value is correct.

You can break it down between making the playoffs and winning the playoffs.

If we made the playoffs it would almost certainly be in 6th place maybe 5th at a lower distribution.
We would probably be an underdog to at least 2 of the 3 teams if not all three.
Our chances would be around 15% (25% if all teams were equal)

So the market is only giving us a 33% chance of making the playoffs.
Given how many games we have lost and goals we have shipped this season I think that seems about right.

Posted By: usacanary on February 15th 2024 at 12:48:23

Message Thread

Can't really argue with any of this (NCFC) - norwaay, Feb 15, 10:21:47
- Spot On. Nail hit firmly on the head. (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Splat, Feb 15, 14:24:57
- We booed the manager making an early sub which had cost us winning the game before. (NCFC) - DH Yellow, Feb 15, 14:12:25
  - But he explained clearly WHY he did it after the QPR game (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 15, 19:23:32
- I'd suggest that there are two e's in divorcees. Pretty sloppy (n/m) (NCFC) - MonkeyPuzzle, Feb 15, 12:45:35
  - He’s making the reasonable assumption that they are male (NCFC) - Old Git, Feb 15, 12:48:21
- I know it's a long shot but.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 15, 12:34:23
  - ^Taylor Swift^ American and always going on about Haterz (n/m) (NCFC) - littletinyphil, Feb 15, 13:06:35
  - 5% chance (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 15, 12:35:43
    - Me too. Thanks for the tip, whoever it was! (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Feb 15, 12:56:08
      - Stroud I think! (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 15, 12:58:34
        
        The reason its so high is.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 15, 14:14:13
        
        Coventry are 11/1 (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 15, 14:24:51
        
        Clearly we should be the bookie in that case. (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 15, 14:39:49
    - The math(s) (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 15, 12:48:23
      - Market is around 22% chance of playoffs (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 15, 12:52:21
        
        Those two clearly corelate with each other (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 15, 13:07:15
- I wonder if this will be the answer? Arsenals Number 2 for new manager (NCFC) - megson, Feb 15, 12:15:47
  - is their something wrong with our current manager (n/m) (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Feb 15, 12:32:31
    - The answer to the division mentioned in the article the parent post linked to. (NCFC) - megson, Feb 15, 12:39:16
  - Surely this is more negative to Wagner than a few boos? (n/m) (NCFC) - littletinyphil, Feb 15, 12:22:31
    - Club doesn't control the national media, could be nothing in it. (NCFC) - megson, Feb 15, 12:28:20
      - But is that the issue? A few things have made me think (NCFC) - littletinyphil, Feb 15, 12:32:23
        
        Maybe the comment about the summer (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 15, 12:38:39
        
        See what you mean, (n/m) (NCFC) - megson, Feb 15, 12:37:02
        
        The interview after the game reminded me when i left my job (NCFC) - littletinyphil, Feb 15, 12:42:43
  - Have to say that does sound exciting but its a gamble. (NCFC) - megson, Feb 15, 12:17:05
- Maybe the club needs to split in 2 (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 15, 12:15:02
  - Everything isn't black and white (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 15, 12:59:49
    - Agreed (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 15, 13:32:50
- Moving the goalposts, wanting the impossible (NCFC) - Henclrikus, Feb 15, 12:07:03
  - Also... (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 15, 12:22:17
    - The first applicants to HC FC are in! (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 15, 12:23:46
- Fuck me what a bunch of millennial snowflakery (NCFC) - Old Git, Feb 15, 11:49:28
  - Reality is that normally it just comes down to results and performances (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 15, 12:00:08
    - Unheard of at Norwich that I can remember (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 15, 12:00:43
- Agree with the diagnosis but don't really understand the proposed solution (NCFC) - Bertie Russell, Feb 15, 11:48:27
  - The senior leaders at the club have got themselves in a great big hole (NCFC) - Under soil heating, Feb 15, 12:36:26
    - I agree with all of that, time will heal things (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 15, 14:07:04
    - If we (mostly) agree that the boos on Tues were unwarranted (NCFC) - Henclrikus, Feb 15, 13:33:05
      - Wagner was entitled to say his piece, imho. (NCFC) - Under soil heating, Feb 15, 18:53:14
    - Really good post USH 👍 (n/m) (NCFC) - norwaay, Feb 15, 13:03:54
    - POTD (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 15, 12:59:39
    - Good post. Completely agree. And (NCFC) - Jim, Feb 15, 12:55:18
    - Jim as manager, Loz on transfers and USH on comms (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Git, Feb 15, 12:50:43
  - What it means is (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Feb 15, 11:52:46
    - "Entitled" as ever is the key word (NCFC) - mr carra, Feb 15, 12:04:38
  - It means sitting in a circle with a scented candle and a whale song CD (NCFC) - Old Git, Feb 15, 11:50:50
    - lol. Right. (n/m) (NCFC) - Bertie Russell, Feb 15, 11:51:26
      - WITHOUT LAUGHING (NCFC) - Old Git, Feb 15, 11:52:32
- I don't think even the fans know now what would appease them (NCFC) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Feb 15, 11:36:18
  - Transport them back to Roeder, Hamilton, Grant eras to see how bad is really has been... (n/m) (NCFC) - BSE Canary, Feb 15, 12:22:41
  - Welease Wagnerick! (n/m) (NCFC) - Bristol Graham, Feb 15, 12:06:21
  - Buttons on every seat to decide subs (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 15, 11:56:03
  - Jim as manager, loz i/c transfers (NCFC) - Old Git, Feb 15, 11:51:41
    - That would involve a very different half time hotdog challenge (n/m) (NCFC) - Knitted Jesus, Feb 15, 12:30:17
  - Any peace talks would be like negotiating with a toddler who's stayed up too late and ate (NCFC) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Feb 15, 11:41:17
- Is harmony possible with Wagner in charge? (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 15, 11:27:13
  - We needed (and still do need in my view) more of a new broom than we've got (NCFC) - Jim, Feb 15, 11:43:09
    - Why is there such an issue with Zoe Webber? is it just because of who her husband is? (NCFC) - megson, Feb 15, 12:12:28
      - Well I can only speak personally but.. (NCFC) - Jim, Feb 15, 13:07:59
        
        this "meteoric rise" to which you refer (NCFC) - Henclrikus, Feb 15, 13:44:15
        
        Yes but that is a completely different role to a CEO (NCFC) - Jim, Feb 15, 15:13:32
        
        Ah yes, Kensall & Munby (NCFC) - Henclrikus, Feb 15, 16:03:27
        
        ^ stalking her on LinkedIn (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 15, 13:47:37
        
        Archant get the credit for this (NCFC) - Henclrikus, Feb 15, 13:50:35
    - Jim, do you not think that part of the issue here is the Director of Football model, which (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Feb 15, 11:55:24
      - Not really. I don't mind the DOF role but the problem we had was that Webber did not (NCFC) - Jim, Feb 15, 13:16:10
        
        I'd agree with that, especially appointing Smith after Farke that will always be a (NCFC) - megson, Feb 15, 13:24:12
    - "very significant chunk" - show us your figures Jim? I'm hearing (NCFC) - Pixelman, Feb 15, 11:50:03
      - I can only go by the fans I know and interact with (NCFC) - Jim, Feb 15, 12:59:34
        
        That's fair, realistically though where do people think we should be with this squad? (n/m) (NCFC) - megson, Feb 15, 13:01:37
        
        I think we are approaching where we should be in terms of league position now but (NCFC) - Jim, Feb 15, 13:22:36
      - Well, when we were doing badly (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 15, 11:59:16
  - If fan / club harmony is the priority, then sacking Wagner would be part of the solution (NCFC) - maidstoneyellow, Feb 15, 11:40:24
    - Totally agree (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 15, 11:57:29
- I’m hoping Delia comes on the pitch on saturday (NCFC) - littletinyphil, Feb 15, 11:14:18
- Boo Boo Boo, Lemme hear you say way oh (n/m) (NCFC) - inutero, Feb 15, 11:11:36
- It’s been like it since our second Prem relegation (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 15, 10:47:23
  - Agreed (n/m) (NCFC) - norwaay, Feb 15, 10:50:46
  - Yep let’s hope club and fans and all (n/m) (NCFC) - loz, Feb 15, 10:48:58
    - Connected can come together and bring back some harmony … (NCFC) - loz, Feb 15, 10:49:30

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