Sorry this just totally wrong....
You wrote
"Because of those variables I'd say the betting markets are more an indication of sentiment and the relative confidence of bettors in opposing camps than any real indication of what will happen"
If the markets do not reflect the actual outcome then it would be highly intuitive to just bet all the large underdogs and scoop up all the money over the long term.
Spoiler alert....they do correlate with the probabilities and you can't win by betting underdogs.
Some markets are highly efficient, some are not.
There is also a correlation between efficiency and liquidity.
The more liquid a market, the more professional interest a market attracts. (And the harder it is to beat)
Posted By: usacanary on July 12th 2024 at 16:03:09
Message Thread
- Biden says if the polls show he has no chance he'll step down (General Chat) - Old Man, Jul 12, 09:28:49
- Where the real world decisions are made.... (General Chat) - usacanary, Jul 12, 15:09:22
- the political betting markets are often wrong... (General Chat) - KevinBond, Jul 12, 11:34:47
- Are they though? (General Chat) - Old Man, Jul 12, 12:32:05
- Polling suffers from sample sizes. (General Chat) - usacanary, Jul 12, 15:54:10
- The betting markets are a profitable businesa (General Chat) - Cardiff Canary, Jul 12, 11:49:29
- Al markets get it ‘wrong’ (General Chat) - SCC 28, Jul 12, 11:36:44
- Are they though? (General Chat) - Old Man, Jul 12, 12:32:05
- He looks like what he is - a doddery old man. Can’t believe the democrats can’t see that. (General Chat) - Under soil heating, Jul 12, 11:18:55
- This was satire in the 90's now not so much (General Chat) - KevinBond, Jul 12, 14:51:42
- There in an almost impossible position (General Chat) - norwaay, Jul 12, 11:28:24
- he wasn't the "best candidate in 2020" though, Obama and the dems got scared because (General Chat) - Cable Gap Pioneer, Jul 12, 14:44:20
- I take your point (General Chat) - norwaay, Jul 12, 14:55:29
- The mistake was keeping Harris on the ticket (General Chat) - CWC, Jul 12, 14:04:35
- *They're* (n/m) (General Chat) - norwaay, Jul 12, 11:29:03
- he wasn't the "best candidate in 2020" though, Obama and the dems got scared because (General Chat) - Cable Gap Pioneer, Jul 12, 14:44:20
- The markets mostly use public information (General Chat) - usacanary, Jul 12, 10:54:23
- Give him a bag of Werthers Originals and politely tell him to fuck off (n/m) (General Chat) - MonkeyPuzzle, Jul 12, 10:23:21
- Makes sense markets correct themselves after declarations (General Chat) - SCC 28, Jul 12, 09:38:04
- To what extent are ai_algorythms going to effect odds makers, (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Jul 12, 10:22:57
- Person has ffs. (n/m) (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Jul 12, 10:23:23
- Yeah it didn't do so well that time around in fairness (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Man, Jul 12, 09:56:31
- Expecting trump to win (General Chat) - SCC 28, Jul 12, 10:01:12
- To what extent are ai_algorythms going to effect odds makers, (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Jul 12, 10:22:57
Reply to Message
In order to add a post to the WotB Message Board you must be a registered WotB user.
If you are not yet registered then please visit the registration page. You should ensure that their browser is setup to accept cookies.