Biden says if the polls show he has no chance he'll step down
Nationally it is indeed within the margin of error but in the states where the thing will be decided Trump is more or less ahead in all. Referring to Zelenksy as Putin probably won't hurt him in states whose residents may not have really heard of either. Referring to Harris as Trump in other contexts would be a meaningless mis-speak like what all humans do from time to time.
In context, though, his goose is surely cooked and it's about how to manage the transition to whoever's next. I think just instering Harris ends badly. Of the rest Newsom or Whitmer and ideally a ticket with both of them on it in some order as they will appeal to different constituencies.
Betfair has Trump down to 1.65 to win, with Harris second favourite just under 6 and Biden out to about 11. A few weeks ago Trump was only just under evens. That market is rarely very wrong when it comes to big elections - it did better as the night went on when Trump won the first time out than people like Nate Silver, for all their statistical expertise.
Posted By: Old Man on July 12th 2024 at 09:28:49
Message Thread
- Biden says if the polls show he has no chance he'll step down (General Chat) - Old Man, Jul 12, 09:28:49
- Where the real world decisions are made.... (General Chat) - usacanary, Jul 12, 15:09:22
- the political betting markets are often wrong... (General Chat) - KevinBond, Jul 12, 11:34:47
- Are they though? (General Chat) - Old Man, Jul 12, 12:32:05
- Polling suffers from sample sizes. (General Chat) - usacanary, Jul 12, 15:54:10
- The betting markets are a profitable businesa (General Chat) - Cardiff Canary, Jul 12, 11:49:29
- Sorry this just totally wrong.... (General Chat) - usacanary, Jul 12, 16:03:09
- Al markets get it ‘wrong’ (General Chat) - SCC 28, Jul 12, 11:36:44
- Are they though? (General Chat) - Old Man, Jul 12, 12:32:05
- He looks like what he is - a doddery old man. Can’t believe the democrats can’t see that. (General Chat) - Under soil heating, Jul 12, 11:18:55
- This was satire in the 90's now not so much (General Chat) - KevinBond, Jul 12, 14:51:42
- There in an almost impossible position (General Chat) - norwaay, Jul 12, 11:28:24
- he wasn't the "best candidate in 2020" though, Obama and the dems got scared because (General Chat) - Cable Gap Pioneer, Jul 12, 14:44:20
- I take your point (General Chat) - norwaay, Jul 12, 14:55:29
- The mistake was keeping Harris on the ticket (General Chat) - CWC, Jul 12, 14:04:35
- *They're* (n/m) (General Chat) - norwaay, Jul 12, 11:29:03
- he wasn't the "best candidate in 2020" though, Obama and the dems got scared because (General Chat) - Cable Gap Pioneer, Jul 12, 14:44:20
- The markets mostly use public information (General Chat) - usacanary, Jul 12, 10:54:23
- Give him a bag of Werthers Originals and politely tell him to fuck off (n/m) (General Chat) - MonkeyPuzzle, Jul 12, 10:23:21
- Makes sense markets correct themselves after declarations (General Chat) - SCC 28, Jul 12, 09:38:04
- To what extent are ai_algorythms going to effect odds makers, (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Jul 12, 10:22:57
- Person has ffs. (n/m) (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Jul 12, 10:23:23
- Yeah it didn't do so well that time around in fairness (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Man, Jul 12, 09:56:31
- Expecting trump to win (General Chat) - SCC 28, Jul 12, 10:01:12
- To what extent are ai_algorythms going to effect odds makers, (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Jul 12, 10:22:57
Reply to Message
In order to add a post to the WotB Message Board you must be a registered WotB user.
If you are not yet registered then please visit the registration page. You should ensure that their browser is setup to accept cookies.