It's partly a disagreement between medics

and partly what looks like overreliance on a model with massive unknowns. What are the error bars on what is being said? They haven't told us, very unusually for scientists. Probably because we know so little that the variance is massive and their model is as likely wrong as it is right.

Best pray they're right and most of the other world experts are wrong.

The one country with experience in this s**t is Japan (SARS). Look at what they did this time, look at their curve compared to every single other country with active covid-19 and ask why we're not doing the same.

Posted By: Yurik Hunt on March 12th 2020 at 20:33:26

Message Thread

For people not wearing tinfoil hats this is an excellent, informative, sobering, (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 19:37:32
- Testing only on hospitalised patients - what's the point of that? If they're in hospital, (General Chat) - Skeleton Bob, Mar 12, 20:30:19
  - Possibly (assuming they're admitted into isolation), but not tracking and testing (General Chat) - Skeleton Bob, Mar 12, 20:40:28
  - You may be right, of course, Bob (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:39:08
    - Bet his name's not even Bob! (n/m) (General Chat) - Men without hats, Mar 12, 20:50:23
    - So Scotland's off then? (n/m) (General Chat) - Skeleton Bob, Mar 12, 20:41:27
      - But she specifically said it’s only so that police and medics don’t waste their time (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:54:35
  - For keeping them away from other patients? (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:33:57
    - (@essexcanary) (n/m) (General Chat) - Skeleton Bob, Mar 12, 20:42:19
- It’s almost as if we have expert, independent civil servants. (General Chat) - avenging canary, Mar 12, 19:57:47
  - You called 👍 (n/m) (General Chat) - Worthing Yellow, Mar 12, 21:04:29
  - I think we’ve had quite enough of experts (n/m) (General Chat) - jampersands, Mar 12, 20:02:53
    - the point is not, and never was, that "expertise" doesn't exist (General Chat) - paulg, Mar 12, 20:28:17
      - The economy is not biology. (General Chat) - avenging canary, Mar 12, 22:22:13
    - It's fine if the experts are microbiology experts. (General Chat) - Men without hats, Mar 12, 20:16:20
      - His prediction looks pretty solid right now. Biggest slump for decades (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:17:20
        
        those health experts are Remainer 5th columnists (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 20:27:17
- Yeah but, there are also other boffins in the rest of the world with graphs (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 19:57:23
  - Some things transcend political rivalries (General Chat) - Ben, Mar 12, 20:42:53
    - Wait til the professor on Question Time tonight irresponsibly puts the boot in on National (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 20:50:07
      - What time is QT on?? (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:51:55
        
        10.35 I think (n/m) (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 20:57:32
        
        Ok cheers. Not 9 then (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:58:54
    - tell that to Jeremy Hunt, an actual member of this government (General Chat) - Worzel Scrimmage, Mar 12, 20:49:24
      - We’re doing that now apparently. So are we late to the party? (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:51:31
    - I would rather trust the doctors and nurses who may be able to keep my loved ones alive (n/m) (General Chat) - promethian1, Mar 12, 20:46:49
    - lolf. (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 20:46:20
    - I don’t trust this government but I do trust the scientists advising them. (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:44:34
  - If you could put aside IT’S THE TORIES for a moment (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:01:15
    - it's not about THE TORIES OG, it really isn't (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 20:44:27
      - Is it the Tories Ralf? (n/m) (General Chat) - Men without hats, Mar 12, 21:12:48
      - Dutch have been doing it our way. Gone a bit harder line now mind. (n/m) (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 21:02:49
        
        could do with having Steve in Holland here around about now (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 22:23:01
      - Well when you put it like that 🤨🤔 (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:45:40
    - Chief medical officer types are political animals not scientists and probably have long (General Chat) - promethian1, Mar 12, 20:06:17
      - .... (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:16:25
        
        Yes I know, he is a leading civil servant. Real scientists work in industry. (n/m) (General Chat) - promethian1, Mar 12, 20:20:37
    - Why are our country’s super qualified, highly intelligent experts (General Chat) - jampersands, Mar 12, 20:06:11
      - Because we're British. We don't panic. It's undignified. (n/m) (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 20:16:28
        
        except over toilet roll (n/m) (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 20:48:33
      - I don’t know that that’s true, and if it is true then I don’t know (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:13:22
        
        It's partly a disagreement between medics (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 20:33:26
        
        assumig rhe Japanese figures are correct of course (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 20:47:53
        
        Well, testing levels is a whole nother kettle of fish (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 20:51:51
        
        To be fair our curve/stats are better than France, Spain, Italy and Germany (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 20:46:19
        
        Our curve is time-shifted, not better (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 20:47:54
        
        Sorry to be clear (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 21:00:23
        
        It probably started earlier there than it started here (n/m) (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 21:07:27
        
        It’s not though is it. As the first cases occurred at the same tine. (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 20:55:10
        
        every country has different catalysts though (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 21:12:39
        
        I’m not saying ours is better or worse to be honest, thus that so far it’s been (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 22:32:55
        
        Italy, Spain and France "started" ahead of us (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 21:04:33
        
        Not in terms of when the first cases were discovered. Ours and Italy were in the same day (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 21:09:05
        
        First detected != first infected (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 21:13:07
    - Don't argue with him. He'll just call you a racist. (General Chat) - South stand corner, Mar 12, 20:04:25
      - But Luis Suárez isn’t. Apparently. (n/m) (General Chat) - avenging canary, Mar 12, 20:11:48
    - This. (n/m) (General Chat) - avenging canary, Mar 12, 20:03:09
- Can’t you sum up why doing nothing works? (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, Mar 12, 19:45:22
  - Double negative. (n/m) (General Chat) - Men without hats, Mar 12, 19:50:18
- Yes especially when he pressed the button and the graph failed (General Chat) - promethian1, Mar 12, 19:41:05

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