the point is not, and never was, that "expertise" doesn't exist

and is not helpful - it's about what experts in particular fields can and cannot be expected to know and predict - economists for example, are not terribly good at predicting the future - or at least, not predicting it mathematically precise ways, as suggested by some of their models, and as often misunderstood by their audience (leading to a wholesale loss of belief in their use) - Lord King's book about "radical uncertainty" is a good explanation.

Posted By: paulg on March 12th 2020 at 20:28:17

Message Thread

For people not wearing tinfoil hats this is an excellent, informative, sobering, (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 19:37:32
- Testing only on hospitalised patients - what's the point of that? If they're in hospital, (General Chat) - Skeleton Bob, Mar 12, 20:30:19
  - Possibly (assuming they're admitted into isolation), but not tracking and testing (General Chat) - Skeleton Bob, Mar 12, 20:40:28
  - You may be right, of course, Bob (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:39:08
    - Bet his name's not even Bob! (n/m) (General Chat) - Men without hats, Mar 12, 20:50:23
    - So Scotland's off then? (n/m) (General Chat) - Skeleton Bob, Mar 12, 20:41:27
      - But she specifically said it’s only so that police and medics don’t waste their time (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:54:35
  - For keeping them away from other patients? (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:33:57
    - (@essexcanary) (n/m) (General Chat) - Skeleton Bob, Mar 12, 20:42:19
- It’s almost as if we have expert, independent civil servants. (General Chat) - avenging canary, Mar 12, 19:57:47
  - You called 👍 (n/m) (General Chat) - Worthing Yellow, Mar 12, 21:04:29
  - I think we’ve had quite enough of experts (n/m) (General Chat) - jampersands, Mar 12, 20:02:53
    - the point is not, and never was, that "expertise" doesn't exist (General Chat) - paulg, Mar 12, 20:28:17
      - The economy is not biology. (General Chat) - avenging canary, Mar 12, 22:22:13
    - It's fine if the experts are microbiology experts. (General Chat) - Men without hats, Mar 12, 20:16:20
      - His prediction looks pretty solid right now. Biggest slump for decades (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:17:20
        
        those health experts are Remainer 5th columnists (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 20:27:17
- Yeah but, there are also other boffins in the rest of the world with graphs (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 19:57:23
  - Some things transcend political rivalries (General Chat) - Ben, Mar 12, 20:42:53
    - Wait til the professor on Question Time tonight irresponsibly puts the boot in on National (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 20:50:07
      - What time is QT on?? (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:51:55
        
        10.35 I think (n/m) (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 20:57:32
        
        Ok cheers. Not 9 then (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:58:54
    - tell that to Jeremy Hunt, an actual member of this government (General Chat) - Worzel Scrimmage, Mar 12, 20:49:24
      - We’re doing that now apparently. So are we late to the party? (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:51:31
    - I would rather trust the doctors and nurses who may be able to keep my loved ones alive (n/m) (General Chat) - promethian1, Mar 12, 20:46:49
    - lolf. (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 20:46:20
    - I don’t trust this government but I do trust the scientists advising them. (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:44:34
  - If you could put aside IT’S THE TORIES for a moment (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:01:15
    - it's not about THE TORIES OG, it really isn't (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 20:44:27
      - Is it the Tories Ralf? (n/m) (General Chat) - Men without hats, Mar 12, 21:12:48
      - Dutch have been doing it our way. Gone a bit harder line now mind. (n/m) (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 21:02:49
        
        could do with having Steve in Holland here around about now (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 22:23:01
      - Well when you put it like that 🤨🤔 (n/m) (General Chat) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 12, 20:45:40
    - Chief medical officer types are political animals not scientists and probably have long (General Chat) - promethian1, Mar 12, 20:06:17
      - .... (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:16:25
        
        Yes I know, he is a leading civil servant. Real scientists work in industry. (n/m) (General Chat) - promethian1, Mar 12, 20:20:37
    - Why are our country’s super qualified, highly intelligent experts (General Chat) - jampersands, Mar 12, 20:06:11
      - Because we're British. We don't panic. It's undignified. (n/m) (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 20:16:28
        
        except over toilet roll (n/m) (General Chat) - Ralf Scrampton, Mar 12, 20:48:33
      - I don’t know that that’s true, and if it is true then I don’t know (General Chat) - Old Git, Mar 12, 20:13:22
        
        It's partly a disagreement between medics (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 20:33:26
        
        assumig rhe Japanese figures are correct of course (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 20:47:53
        
        Well, testing levels is a whole nother kettle of fish (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 20:51:51
        
        To be fair our curve/stats are better than France, Spain, Italy and Germany (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 20:46:19
        
        Our curve is time-shifted, not better (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 20:47:54
        
        Sorry to be clear (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 21:00:23
        
        It probably started earlier there than it started here (n/m) (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 21:07:27
        
        It’s not though is it. As the first cases occurred at the same tine. (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 20:55:10
        
        every country has different catalysts though (General Chat) - CWC, Mar 12, 21:12:39
        
        I’m not saying ours is better or worse to be honest, thus that so far it’s been (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 22:32:55
        
        Italy, Spain and France "started" ahead of us (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 21:04:33
        
        Not in terms of when the first cases were discovered. Ours and Italy were in the same day (General Chat) - Jim, Mar 12, 21:09:05
        
        First detected != first infected (General Chat) - Yurik Hunt, Mar 12, 21:13:07
    - Don't argue with him. He'll just call you a racist. (General Chat) - South stand corner, Mar 12, 20:04:25
      - But Luis Suárez isn’t. Apparently. (n/m) (General Chat) - avenging canary, Mar 12, 20:11:48
    - This. (n/m) (General Chat) - avenging canary, Mar 12, 20:03:09
- Can’t you sum up why doing nothing works? (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, Mar 12, 19:45:22
  - Double negative. (n/m) (General Chat) - Men without hats, Mar 12, 19:50:18
- Yes especially when he pressed the button and the graph failed (General Chat) - promethian1, Mar 12, 19:41:05

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