Counter point.........

This would assume 75 points which has an extremely high probability of making the playoffs.
A lot of the teams are also on a good run compared to their form from the first 20 games.
There is a high probability that at least 50% of these teams will revert to mean.
Also we have to look at strength of schedule for the last 13 to the next 13 if we want to compare apples to apples over this small sample.

Having run a Monte Carlo simulation I would wager there is a high probability of making the playoffs with 75 points (24 points from 13 games)
2PPG (26 points from 13 games) gives a 95%+ chance.

Posted By: usacanary on February 21st 2024 at 14:49:55

Message Thread

with 13 games to go the reality of our chances of making the top 6 (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Feb 21, 10:02:05
- Odds on top 6 finish (NCFC) - CityJack, Feb 21, 19:48:29
  - You do understand how a bookie works? (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 21, 21:35:58
    - Thanks for your insight (NCFC) - CityJack, Feb 21, 22:22:06
- Hull v WBA on Saturday and they can't both get three points (n/m) (NCFC) - MonkeyPuzzle, Feb 21, 11:04:20
- We’ve also been considerably out scoring our xG (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 10:48:44
  - all teams at the top do.......stupid stat. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 21, 14:52:25
    - Disappointing that we’re 8th then (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 16:36:31
  - Meant to be a reply down there (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 10:49:28
- generally (I think) they have worse run ins - and play each other more (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 21, 10:44:33
  - Extra away game not ideal however (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 10:50:05
    - it's almost as if it's very unpredictable indeed! (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 21, 10:57:30
      - We’ve got a small chance - 18% for me (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 11:00:05
        
        19% for me (n/m) (NCFC) - Massive_Tiny, Feb 21, 12:52:11
        
        I don't understand the use of %'s in this context (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 21, 11:17:56
        
        18% is just a more elegant way of expressing (NCFC) - Pam Demic, Feb 21, 11:30:05
        
        Everything has a % (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 11:20:12
        
        it may be that everything is predestined, simply unfolding since the Big Bang (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 21, 11:29:18
        
        If you look in the box...the cat gets it... just saying. (n/m) (NCFC) - promethian1, Feb 21, 14:29:12
        
        WHATEVER YOU DO, DON'T LOOK IN THE DAMN BOX! (n/m) (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 21, 16:12:01
        
        I'd love to know what an actuary would say.... (NCFC) - Pam Demic, Feb 21, 11:17:25
- The problem is the number of teams in the mix (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 21, 10:37:42
  - yes that is the problem at the moment (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Feb 21, 10:44:14
  - Yep, we are 18th in the league on away form (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 21, 10:40:54
    - with regard to away form ... (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Feb 21, 10:45:54
      - We’ve got to go for it at Blackburn (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 21, 10:47:09
        
        Especially considering our tendency to make defensive mistakes. (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Feb 21, 12:24:16
        
        That’s what I think too proth (n/m) (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 21, 13:40:10
        
        Cov, Hull and WBA all playing before us (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 10:54:07
        
        When was the last time we didn't play with the handbrake on away from home? (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 21, 10:51:56
        
        Plymouth, arguably? (n/m) (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 21, 11:00:26
        
        All our brakes failed that day (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 21, 11:01:52
        
        Vmt (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 21, 11:04:45
        
        Playing with the handbrake on (NCFC) - Pam Demic, Feb 21, 10:51:46
        
        It was clear in the game at home to Watford, as well as most away games… (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Feb 21, 11:03:19
        
        Thats what is so puzzling about Wagner's tactics (NCFC) - Pam Demic, Feb 21, 11:15:40
- On current form we'd miss out (NCFC) - Ben, Feb 21, 10:18:59
  - Counter point......... (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 21, 14:49:55
  - If we carry on scoring as we are at the moment there will be no stopping us (NCFC) - MonkeyPuzzle, Feb 21, 11:10:09
    - We could win every game 100-0 (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 11:57:24
      - What would be the percentage chance of us not being in the playoffs if we won all our (NCFC) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Feb 21, 12:14:40
        
        The stupidity of SCC..... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 21, 14:51:20
        
        0.00000000001% (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 14:04:20
        
        Lump on (n/m) (NCFC) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Feb 21, 14:12:14
      - The only ones of our playoff rivals we have still to play (NCFC) - Pam Demic, Feb 21, 12:08:24
- That run of defeats was just catastrophic for us,we (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Feb 21, 10:14:17
  - All the lower playoff teams have had bad runs...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 21, 14:55:30
  - Well all it proves PF, (NCFC) - Pam Demic, Feb 21, 10:22:50
    - It's the same every season (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 21, 10:27:24
      - if david wagner is here or not next season i think that would be a better platform to get (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 21, 11:17:11
        
        A lot of good stuff in what you say there, Tombs (NCFC) - Pam Demic, Feb 21, 11:56:04
        
        VMT. Although nice to have something still to play for at the end of the season (NCFC) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Feb 21, 11:50:13
      - That may all be true... (NCFC) - Pam Demic, Feb 21, 10:45:46
        
        Neither are Leicester or Leeds tbf (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 21, 10:52:35
        
        That was last season, and a lot has changed (NCFC) - Pam Demic, Feb 21, 11:27:10
        
        It's almost as if it's all pointless (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 21, 11:53:35
- Hull did a job on us in the Jan window (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 21, 10:09:41
  - Sainz coming in and Sarge returning are like new signings really. (n/m) (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Feb 21, 10:18:28
- Our ghoul difference could truly make a difference in the end. (n/m) (NCFC) - DrDublin, Feb 21, 10:05:18

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