Sorry this just totally wrong....

You wrote

"Because of those variables I'd say the betting markets are more an indication of sentiment and the relative confidence of bettors in opposing camps than any real indication of what will happen"

If the markets do not reflect the actual outcome then it would be highly intuitive to just bet all the large underdogs and scoop up all the money over the long term.

Spoiler alert....they do correlate with the probabilities and you can't win by betting underdogs.

Some markets are highly efficient, some are not.
There is also a correlation between efficiency and liquidity.
The more liquid a market, the more professional interest a market attracts. (And the harder it is to beat)

Posted By: usacanary, Jul 12, 16:03:09