System

Most professional bettors hate the word system.
It implies snake oil or bulls**t luck.

We use pure math to derive probabilities.

All my sportsbetting work is done using a mathematical predictive model that estimates the line on a game using the known data and some additional fudge factors.

Most of the money I bet is actually on College Football not the the NFL. The lines are much softer compared to the NFL. Injury info is harder to get.
At this time of the year I make more NBA bets than anything.
I post my plays and thoughts over at sharpsportsbetting.com.
I am currently 20-6-0 in the NBA.
12-5-0 in the NFL. 45-37-0 in CFB.
AS per the rules of SSB, these are against widely available line, meaning my actual results after line shopping are better than this.

Posted By: usacanary on December 27th 2008 at 19:51:52

Message Thread

If Lita signed permanently... would you be happy with that? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:07:20
- as long as his wages wern't hooge (n/m) (NCFC) - strap_on sally, Dec 27, 18:28:39
  - why would you care about his wages? (n/m) (NCFC) - Charles21, Dec 27, 18:31:22
    - I think going forward.................... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:39:48
      - i completely agree (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Dec 27, 18:53:29
      - footy should be like nfl (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:45:20
        
        Talking of which...... week 17 in the NFL is free money week. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:58:33
        
        great, some tips please (n/m) (NCFC) - Charles21, Dec 27, 19:03:52
        
        see the post "yes" (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:18:35
        
        hmmm well detroit are very bad (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:02:35
        
        Yes. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:16:19
        
        follow up advice. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:26:41
        
        ok (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:30:38
        
        Every thing is easy............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:34:44
        
        well it's good to have a sort of system (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:35:45
        
        System (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:51:52
        
        well any predicitive model is basically a system imo (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:57:04
        
        hmmmm (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:22:07
        
        well dallas around 2.1 (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:25:18
        
        what you are missing............ (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:30:47
        
        yes i'm aware of that (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:33:05
        
        LOL (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:37:39
        
        no idea tbh (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:39:56
        
        see "follow up advice" (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:28:18
        
        I guess that why I do this for a living. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:27:24
        
        sure is, you've lost me completely (NCFC) - Charles21, Dec 27, 19:33:14
        
        not exactly an idiots guide lol (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:34:49
        
        FWIW I played at the WSOP the last 2 years. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:40:36
        
        yeah i remember you mentioning the WSOP (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:45:11
        
        PLO is the worst tournament game ever. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:56:58
        
        yeah i meant more plo as cash games really (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:57:57
        
        Impossible though (n/m) (NCFC) - Charles21, Dec 27, 18:58:24
        
        The talk is the cap should be based on............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:59:44
    - indeed some local businessman (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:38:49
      - I have a feeling.............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:46:15
        
        the problem with that is (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:48:30
- If that happened then I'd wouldn't worry about relegation at all (NCFC) - pants, Dec 27, 18:09:53
  - not sure where the money for next season (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:11:46
- not sure anyone wouldn't be (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:09:16

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