It might be more that Trump has consistently outperformed polls

Every time the pollsters say they've adjusted their methodology to compensate. Have they, though?

The Iowa poll showing Harris doing well there was a surprise and it was a well-run poll as well. If that's reflective of something bigger in those states Harris might indeed pull it off (and obviously I dealy want her to). But I fear this will be very close, with Trump ultimately edging it. He will lose the popular vote but that doesn't matter in the US system.

The other factor is the Senate and House. I find it hard to see far past both being Republican. Any Harris presidency will be hamstrung if so; any Trump presidency unrestrained.

Posted By: Old Man on November 5th 2024 at 10:34:39

Message Thread

US Election Prediction Thread (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 07:40:18
- Harris will win comfortably. (General Chat) - MORDENCANARY, Nov 5, 19:28:52
- Trump…….. just! (n/m) (General Chat) - Kirrie, Nov 5, 18:18:52
- Trump 274 (n/m) (General Chat) - littletinyphil, Nov 5, 16:01:59
  - A bit more I think (n/m) (General Chat) - ParrotPuncher, Nov 5, 16:13:41
- 296-242 to Harris (General Chat) - Kev, Nov 5, 14:53:54
  - LOL..... like 306-232 (n/m) (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 5, 18:14:20
- Tell me Carlin wasn't a Genius..... (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 5, 13:19:29
  - Who gets your vote (n/m) (General Chat) - loz, Nov 5, 13:27:39
    - And more importantly (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 15:58:50
      - Because it makes my haterz froth.... (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 5, 18:15:07
- Harris based on the +3 Iowa poll (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 5, 11:11:15
  - It's because she doesn't needn't factor as much for race because Iowa is 90% white (General Chat) - trafford_canary, Nov 5, 11:16:51
- Harris will win (n/m) (General Chat) - revsimon, Nov 5, 09:19:01
- Harris will win. Trump will claim it's stolen. (General Chat) - Dunney, Nov 5, 09:07:00
  - If the first is true the second follows as night follows day (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:07:00
    - It does seem that the "government" are better prepared for most entualities this time (n/m) (General Chat) - Dunney, Nov 5, 10:54:19
- Harris 276 (n/m) (General Chat) - Kangol Canary, Nov 5, 09:05:43
- one fuck given (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 5, 08:32:16
  - Sadly that's quite unlikely (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 5, 10:25:16
    - If Trump does win (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 10:33:14
      - Whys he a nutter....?? (n/m) (General Chat) - ParrotPuncher, Nov 5, 11:51:13
        
        Nutter might be a subjective opinion but he does have some 'interesting' views... (General Chat) - The Gaffer, Nov 5, 12:03:30
      - If Trump wins I don't believe we will follow through on some of his more outlandish (General Chat) - The Gaffer, Nov 5, 10:43:13
  - Agreed (n/m) (General Chat) - thirsty work, Nov 5, 10:23:51
  - Quite important this one Mr Blander (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:07:30
    - not the most inspiring choice given the job at stake (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 5, 10:12:10
  - That’ll be the court case then 👍 (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 08:42:15
    - i don't know anything about no court case (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 5, 08:52:07
      - 90 seconds in the microwave here (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 08:53:57
        
        I give mine 120 (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 5, 09:24:32
        
        You must give yours a bit more milk (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 10:12:56
        
        135 and you're having porridge for lunch (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 5, 10:53:32
        
        But where's the love? (n/m) (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Nov 5, 08:54:55
        
        I very much love making breakfast quickly (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 08:55:44
        
        no rush here bromigo (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 5, 09:10:41
  - Vmt. (n/m) (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Nov 5, 08:33:30
- I had a punt on Harris after Lichtman called it for her (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 08:26:06
  - The potentially big factor could be women voters (General Chat) - Kev, Nov 5, 15:14:14
  - Interesting take on the betting markets I heard yesterday (General Chat) - Under soil heating, Nov 5, 08:53:14
    - yup thatswhat ive done. seen the valuein a harris win on the betting (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 5, 10:46:41
    - It might be more that Trump has consistently outperformed polls (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 5, 10:34:39
      - The polls/media got it significantly wrong in the last mid-term elections projecting a red (General Chat) - The Gaffer, Nov 5, 10:53:20
        
        Trump, not his proxies (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 5, 12:24:01
    - the polls are only 50:50 as they are too scared to call it - they are actually 3% either (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 5, 10:09:18
    - Really?? (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:06:20
      - We don't need to call them techbros then, but young men (General Chat) - Under soil heating, Nov 5, 10:43:22
      - You and your young men... (n/m) (General Chat) - The Gaffer, Nov 5, 10:30:02
        
        Come round (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:36:50
  - You changed your mind from back in the summer then? (n/m) (General Chat) - Bertie Russell, Nov 5, 08:42:47
    - Lichtman has a great track record of predictions so I backed him (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:04:40
      - She seems to have performed pretty good (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 10:19:12
        
        Trump was polling well against Biden (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:41:32
- I’ve thought Trump all along (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 5, 08:13:46
  - Me too!! Get the female vote out! (n/m) (General Chat) - JD3, Nov 5, 09:16:43
    - For the lads? (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:07:52
  - Yeah was going to mention his take on the polling (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 08:22:23
- Has anyone listened to rogan/musk. (General Chat) - ParrotPuncher, Nov 5, 08:12:44
  - Sitting talking to people and answering genuine questions (General Chat) - ParrotPuncher, Nov 5, 08:52:31
    - 3 can’t string a sentence together (General Chat) - lurd, Nov 5, 09:06:40
  - Strange that right wing podcasts would have trump miles ahead (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 5, 08:30:53
    - I'm wondering when the fake ass Trumps declare they they've officially won (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Nov 5, 08:44:18
      - He’s already declaring a landslide victory on Cnn (n/m) (General Chat) - loz, Nov 5, 09:07:12

Reply to Message

In order to add a post to the WotB Message Board you must be a registered WotB user.

If you are not yet registered then please visit the registration page. You should ensure that their browser is setup to accept cookies.