Interesting take on the betting markets I heard yesterday

Betting markets consistently have Trump ahead. But who uses these markets - techbros almost exclusively. A segment of the population that is very very pro Trump. Hence, good reason to believe the betting markets are calling it pretty wrong. This doesn't mean Harris will win - it probably is 50:50 like most polls say. But you can take a 60:40 bet on a 50:50 event, and this means if you have the balls, there is a lot of excess unpriced return available on a risk adjusted basis.

Posted By: Under soil heating on November 5th 2024 at 08:53:14

Message Thread

US Election Prediction Thread (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 07:40:18
- Harris will win comfortably. (General Chat) - MORDENCANARY, Nov 5, 19:28:52
- Trump…….. just! (n/m) (General Chat) - Kirrie, Nov 5, 18:18:52
- Trump 274 (n/m) (General Chat) - littletinyphil, Nov 5, 16:01:59
  - A bit more I think (n/m) (General Chat) - ParrotPuncher, Nov 5, 16:13:41
- 296-242 to Harris (General Chat) - Kev, Nov 5, 14:53:54
  - LOL..... like 306-232 (n/m) (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 5, 18:14:20
- Tell me Carlin wasn't a Genius..... (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 5, 13:19:29
  - Who gets your vote (n/m) (General Chat) - loz, Nov 5, 13:27:39
    - And more importantly (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 15:58:50
      - Because it makes my haterz froth.... (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 5, 18:15:07
- Harris based on the +3 Iowa poll (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 5, 11:11:15
  - It's because she doesn't needn't factor as much for race because Iowa is 90% white (General Chat) - trafford_canary, Nov 5, 11:16:51
- Harris will win (n/m) (General Chat) - revsimon, Nov 5, 09:19:01
- Harris will win. Trump will claim it's stolen. (General Chat) - Dunney, Nov 5, 09:07:00
  - If the first is true the second follows as night follows day (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:07:00
    - It does seem that the "government" are better prepared for most entualities this time (n/m) (General Chat) - Dunney, Nov 5, 10:54:19
- Harris 276 (n/m) (General Chat) - Kangol Canary, Nov 5, 09:05:43
- one fuck given (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 5, 08:32:16
  - Sadly that's quite unlikely (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 5, 10:25:16
    - If Trump does win (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 10:33:14
      - Whys he a nutter....?? (n/m) (General Chat) - ParrotPuncher, Nov 5, 11:51:13
        
        Nutter might be a subjective opinion but he does have some 'interesting' views... (General Chat) - The Gaffer, Nov 5, 12:03:30
      - If Trump wins I don't believe we will follow through on some of his more outlandish (General Chat) - The Gaffer, Nov 5, 10:43:13
  - Agreed (n/m) (General Chat) - thirsty work, Nov 5, 10:23:51
  - Quite important this one Mr Blander (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:07:30
    - not the most inspiring choice given the job at stake (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 5, 10:12:10
  - That’ll be the court case then 👍 (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 08:42:15
    - i don't know anything about no court case (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 5, 08:52:07
      - 90 seconds in the microwave here (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 08:53:57
        
        I give mine 120 (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 5, 09:24:32
        
        You must give yours a bit more milk (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 10:12:56
        
        135 and you're having porridge for lunch (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 5, 10:53:32
        
        But where's the love? (n/m) (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Nov 5, 08:54:55
        
        I very much love making breakfast quickly (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 08:55:44
        
        no rush here bromigo (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 5, 09:10:41
  - Vmt. (n/m) (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Nov 5, 08:33:30
- I had a punt on Harris after Lichtman called it for her (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 08:26:06
  - The potentially big factor could be women voters (General Chat) - Kev, Nov 5, 15:14:14
  - Interesting take on the betting markets I heard yesterday (General Chat) - Under soil heating, Nov 5, 08:53:14
    - yup thatswhat ive done. seen the valuein a harris win on the betting (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 5, 10:46:41
    - It might be more that Trump has consistently outperformed polls (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 5, 10:34:39
      - The polls/media got it significantly wrong in the last mid-term elections projecting a red (General Chat) - The Gaffer, Nov 5, 10:53:20
        
        Trump, not his proxies (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 5, 12:24:01
    - the polls are only 50:50 as they are too scared to call it - they are actually 3% either (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 5, 10:09:18
    - Really?? (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:06:20
      - We don't need to call them techbros then, but young men (General Chat) - Under soil heating, Nov 5, 10:43:22
      - You and your young men... (n/m) (General Chat) - The Gaffer, Nov 5, 10:30:02
        
        Come round (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:36:50
  - You changed your mind from back in the summer then? (n/m) (General Chat) - Bertie Russell, Nov 5, 08:42:47
    - Lichtman has a great track record of predictions so I backed him (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:04:40
      - She seems to have performed pretty good (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 10:19:12
        
        Trump was polling well against Biden (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:41:32
- I’ve thought Trump all along (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 5, 08:13:46
  - Me too!! Get the female vote out! (n/m) (General Chat) - JD3, Nov 5, 09:16:43
    - For the lads? (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 5, 10:07:52
  - Yeah was going to mention his take on the polling (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 08:22:23
- Has anyone listened to rogan/musk. (General Chat) - ParrotPuncher, Nov 5, 08:12:44
  - Sitting talking to people and answering genuine questions (General Chat) - ParrotPuncher, Nov 5, 08:52:31
    - 3 can’t string a sentence together (General Chat) - lurd, Nov 5, 09:06:40
  - Strange that right wing podcasts would have trump miles ahead (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 5, 08:30:53
    - I'm wondering when the fake ass Trumps declare they they've officially won (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Nov 5, 08:44:18
      - He’s already declaring a landslide victory on Cnn (n/m) (General Chat) - loz, Nov 5, 09:07:12

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