broadly agree it won’t be the great landslide, but

* Pollsters learnt from 1992, and are also aware of the shy Tory factor, so its better factored in - especially in the MRP polling
* The SNP’S problems in Scotland will probably see more seats than in recent years going to Labour there
* Shy Tories are now being matched by tactical voters, much more adroitly being marshalled to maximise the ‘anyone but a Tory’ vote in our first past the post system.

The most likely downers on the Labour vote will be antipathy/indifference towards Starmer & a very motivated anti-Labour print media, also using their social media clout. Put the two together & expect ‘don’t knows’ to break 2 or 3 to 1 in favour of the Conservatives, with a lower turnout than usual. Many are really bored with the campaign already, and there’s still five weeks to go 😱

Posted By: Tressells Broadbrush on May 29th 2024 at 14:24:29

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