The problem with smaller samples is...

They often show a trend but don't nail down the exact probabilities.

If we flip a fair coin 10 times it could easily come out 6 heads and 4 tails.
Flip it 100 times and it will be much closer to 50/50
Flip it 10000 times and it will 50/50 within a few fractions of a percent.

Clearly 6th place teams don't have a zero percent chance.
Hopefully over the next 100 season we are one of the results that proves that

Posted By: usacanary on April 8th 2024 at 13:27:39

Message Thread

Heard Wagner and the local media talking absolute bollocks. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 12:57:18
- Its Steiner Maths (NCFC) - inutero, Apr 8, 14:26:05
  - I posted that a while back..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 14:41:35
    - He's a genetic freak 33.3% of the time (n/m) (NCFC) - inutero, Apr 8, 16:21:20
- without looking at form , injuries to key players etc (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Apr 8, 13:57:55
  - Imo bookies will say (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 14:08:45
    - Thats 101.98% combined (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 14:45:52
      - Exchange around that then (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 14:51:20
        
        Which would actually be almost identical (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 14:54:32
- On average it’s 25% (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:00:35
  - I'm guessing this season the 5th and 6th place teams . (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:06:09
    - Current odds suggest 15-17% if us and wba make it (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:11:47
      - Saints are 38% to get promoted (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:16:09
        
        Yep did you adjust for vig? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:20:28
        
        Close to 100% books on the exchange (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:24:28
        
        I would be on the other side of that bet... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:34:48
        
        Also the final is on a neutral ground so HFA wont apply. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 14:54:08
        
        And their form has gone very shaky (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:45:13
        
        come what may, they should sack Martlol at the end of the season (NCFC) - paulg, Apr 8, 14:38:29
  - I always thought the team finishing third had the best record (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 13:02:26
    - Well. Only have last 12 seasons to hand, and here's the split: (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Apr 8, 13:13:21
      - The problem with smaller samples is... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:27:39
        
        Thanks again, Captain Obvious (n/m) (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Apr 8, 16:59:02
      - I'm happy to finish 6th a reset the record books (n/m) (NCFC) - ParrotPuncher, Apr 8, 13:16:42
      - West Brom look nailed on for six points from their next two (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 13:15:20
    - This article has a few insights (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:06:52
      - Wow ....it's like.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:19:25
      - Blimey, no-one since Blackpool in 2007. (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 13:13:29
        
        do you mean 2010 (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Apr 8, 14:06:02
        
        Yes (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 14:14:15
      - And 3rd beat 5th last season (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:08:48
        
        huh? (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 14:51:26

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