Wow ....it's like....

The teams proven to be better over 46 games seem to have a better chance....who f**king knew? ..

Of course I already knew this but that's why I am the best.

FWIW that article is a bit misleading because of small sample sizes.
You need larger samples plus you need to adjust for points difference between 3rd to 6th
If they are all close then clearly all should be around 23-27%

I said a few weeks ago that if we got into the playoffs in 6th place we would have around a 15-16% chance of getting promoted as we would be around a 40% dog in both the semi's and final.

Posted By: usacanary on April 8th 2024 at 13:19:25

Message Thread

Heard Wagner and the local media talking absolute bollocks. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 12:57:18
- Its Steiner Maths (NCFC) - inutero, Apr 8, 14:26:05
  - I posted that a while back..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 14:41:35
    - He's a genetic freak 33.3% of the time (n/m) (NCFC) - inutero, Apr 8, 16:21:20
- without looking at form , injuries to key players etc (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Apr 8, 13:57:55
  - Imo bookies will say (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 14:08:45
    - Thats 101.98% combined (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 14:45:52
      - Exchange around that then (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 14:51:20
        
        Which would actually be almost identical (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 14:54:32
- On average it’s 25% (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:00:35
  - I'm guessing this season the 5th and 6th place teams . (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:06:09
    - Current odds suggest 15-17% if us and wba make it (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:11:47
      - Saints are 38% to get promoted (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:16:09
        
        Yep did you adjust for vig? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:20:28
        
        Close to 100% books on the exchange (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:24:28
        
        I would be on the other side of that bet... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:34:48
        
        Also the final is on a neutral ground so HFA wont apply. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 14:54:08
        
        And their form has gone very shaky (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:45:13
        
        come what may, they should sack Martlol at the end of the season (NCFC) - paulg, Apr 8, 14:38:29
  - I always thought the team finishing third had the best record (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 13:02:26
    - Well. Only have last 12 seasons to hand, and here's the split: (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Apr 8, 13:13:21
      - The problem with smaller samples is... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:27:39
        
        Thanks again, Captain Obvious (n/m) (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Apr 8, 16:59:02
      - I'm happy to finish 6th a reset the record books (n/m) (NCFC) - ParrotPuncher, Apr 8, 13:16:42
      - West Brom look nailed on for six points from their next two (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 13:15:20
    - This article has a few insights (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:06:52
      - Wow ....it's like.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 13:19:25
      - Blimey, no-one since Blackpool in 2007. (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 13:13:29
        
        do you mean 2010 (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Apr 8, 14:06:02
        
        Yes (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 14:14:15
      - And 3rd beat 5th last season (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 13:08:48
        
        huh? (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 14:51:26

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