Cherry picking small sections of a season is a bit silly.....

but I'm sure you must know that.
There was a 10 game spell earlier in the season where we would have been relegated on that form.

The championship table after 35 games is a much better indicator/correlation to the results going forward and the final standings.

If past 10 games was more relevant then betting markets would have us at a much higher chance of making the playoffs...... they don't because it isn't.

A more accurate prediction would be (PPG after 35 games X 11 games) + add current point total.
That was the original table of tilt, way back in the day.

An even more accurate predictor with 11 games to go is a Monte Carlo simulation of each game based on each individual match up, home or away and amount of rest. Also small injury adjustments.

Posted By: usacanary on March 5th 2024 at 14:02:52

Message Thread

xpected Points (Other Football) - Henclrikus, Mar 5, 13:04:01
- And if my uncle had breasts he'd be my aunt (Other Football) - inutero, Mar 5, 15:47:59
  - TRANSPHOBE (n/m) (Other Football) - Old Git, Mar 5, 22:08:27
  - DM me. I have some news re your uncle. (n/m) (Other Football) - MonkeyPuzzle, Mar 5, 16:45:03
  - but only if his last ten visits to the clinic had gone well? (n/m) (Other Football) - Henclrikus, Mar 5, 15:52:30
    - Expect Fun Bag Ratio 9.5 (n/m) (Other Football) - inutero, Mar 5, 16:04:44
- This data obsession is tiresome. (n/m) (Other Football) - MonkeyPuzzle, Mar 5, 15:40:08
  - The number of data-related posts has steadily increased, showing a CAGR of 23.7% (Other Football) - Old Man, Mar 5, 15:46:22
    - ha ha (Other Football) - shoddy, Mar 5, 18:16:15
    - Interesting (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 15:52:23
      - First against the wall is 'Stat Man Dave' (n/m) (Other Football) - MonkeyPuzzle, Mar 5, 16:46:09
- What about based on Wagner’s last 10 games (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 15:26:23
  - LOLz you mean the 10 games before he got sacked/left every time (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:17:03
    - Nope never got sacked or left after an end of season (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 17:30:56
      - I said "left" in the header of the post above...... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:38:44
        
        Erm nobody is arguing about that (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 17:42:21
        
        Thats why I asked the question.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:49:10
        
        And then I pointed out no, the final 10 games (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 17:52:13
- Cherry picking small sections of a season is a bit silly..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 14:02:52
  - Lolz. I remember you making some catastrophic predictions based on past trends (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Mar 5, 15:45:59
    - Please post an example or STFU (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:05:53
      - What you mean like this absolute nonsense? (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Mar 5, 17:25:05
        
        Not a small sample tbf (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 17:34:19
        
        You are an idiot. Plain and simple (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:34:04
        
        Absolute scenes. (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Mar 5, 17:39:13
        
        Yep, you are an idiot and don't even know it. (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:46:57
        
        I know that some predictions are better than others (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Mar 5, 18:52:35
        
        You just did a word salad that makes no sense..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 18:59:01
        
        TLDR: You are shit at predictions (n/m) (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Mar 5, 20:17:12
        
        Sorry too burst your bubble but I became rich off my predictions.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 21:02:07
        
        Live footage of USAC on his latest cruise (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Mar 5, 21:35:26
        
        In fairness (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 17:56:06
        
        That wasnt a mathematical prediction, that was an opinion..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 18:02:34
        
        A really shit opinion? (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 18:03:48
        
        TBF you are the expert on shit opinions so I will take your word for it. (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 18:05:10
  - It isn't just based on recent 10-game form. Dimwit. (Other Football) - Henclrikus, Mar 5, 15:12:11
    - "Based on form over the last ten lge games" (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:05:10
      - over a 35 game period (Other Football) - Henclrikus, Mar 5, 21:10:27
      - first (Other Football) - Cable Gap Pioneer, Mar 5, 17:33:25
        
        What is genius is getting my haterz to say my catch phrases... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:58:32
        
        second (n/m) (Other Football) - Cable Gap Pioneer, Mar 5, 18:06:44
        
        Thank you for playing MY game..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 18:10:22
        
        third (Other Football) - Cable Gap Pioneer, Mar 5, 18:25:27
        
        it is..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 18:35:13
        
        Fourth (Other Football) - Cable Gap Pioneer, Mar 5, 18:37:54
        
        really, got you obsessed and playing MY game....... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 18:43:38
        
        5th (Other Football) - Cable Gap Pioneer, Mar 5, 18:45:39
      - 6 home, 4 away also significant (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 17:23:05
        
        exactly, thats my point. (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:24:07
        
        An even sample split (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 17:35:19
        
        50/50 better (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 17:35:31
        
        how do you get 50/50 over 35 games? (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:40:02
        
        I said EVEN sample (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 17:59:58
        
        I said 35 games..... Math is hard..... (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 18:03:38
        
        Take your meds (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Mar 5, 18:04:37
        
        Oh dear.,... Owned again.....Back to dipping the fries Mikey.... (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 18:05:58
    - You could argue current form is more relevant than (Other Football) - jamesward, Mar 5, 15:12:55
      - You could argue that. (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:13:27
        
        We did have some very tough games in our good recent run though (Other Football) - jamesward, Mar 5, 17:27:05
        
        and TBF and balanced..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 18:33:58
  - Thanks guy (n/m) (Other Football) - Chair_of_the_Bored, Mar 5, 14:09:07
- Ipswich have been brilliant (Other Football) - ParrotPuncher, Mar 5, 13:27:06
  - It'll be fun watching Ipswich get thrashed every week next season, if they do go up (n/m) (Other Football) - Massive_Tiny, Mar 5, 16:52:43
  - They “deserve” to go up if they finish top 2 (Other Football) - SimonOTBC, Mar 5, 15:04:43
    - That's not really true is it? (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Mar 5, 16:44:32
      - The concept of Desert is linked to Jelly Haterz.... (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Mar 5, 17:18:34

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