The Roed to survival

Right - I've gone through all our remaining games, and had a go at guessing what we'll pick up. Of course, it's a largely pointless exercise, and plenty other sides in the division will pick up and lose form, change managers, sign or lose key players etc over the next five and-a-half months. But I've done so in order to get an idea of the sort of total we'll need at various future points in the season to still be in with a real chance of staying up.

As you'll see, I have us on just 19 points at the turn of the year - but even then, the run of home games between then and the end of the campaign gives us a realistic shot. We won't win all key games, of course we won't - but I'm working on the assumption that for every two points we disappointingly drop at home (say, home to Blackpool in March), we make amends with a surprise win on our travels (say, at Bristol City in April: by when, they'll surely be drifting in mid-table, out of contention for the play-offs). But there are various stretches where we must keep the total ticking over: we must take at least four points from our next six, for instance, and must do so again when Plymouth and Sheff Utd visit. Ultimately, I have us on 48 points going to Hillsborough on the last day, and have left that one blank - because it'd depend whether we needed a win, draw, or nothing at all depending on other results that day.

I'll return to this post every now and then - just to get a sense of where we are, and how likely survival is. Hopefully, we'll do better than I've predicted, and clinch safety early - but this is just a realistic guess at what might happen:

Coventry (h) W Pld 17, Pts 12
Blackpool (a) D Pld 18, Pts 13
Stoke (a) L Pld 19, Pts 13
Plymouth (h) W Pld 20, Pts 16
Sheff U (h) D Pld 21, Pts 17
Colchester (a) D Pld 22, Pts 18
Scunthorpe (a) D Pld 23, Pts 19
Charlton (h) L Pld 24, Pts 19
Wolves (h) L Pld 25, Pts 19
Crystal P (a) L Pld 26, Pts 19
Barnsley (a) W Pld 27, Pts 22
Leicester (h) D Pld 28, Pts 23
Southampton (a) L Pld 29, Pts 23
Preston (h) W Pld 30, Pts 26
Cardiff (a) L Pld 31, Pts 26
Hull (h) W Pld 32, Pts 29
Leicester (a) D Pld 33, Pts 30
Barnsley (h) W Pld 34, Pts 33
Blackpool (h) D Pld 35, Pts 34
Watford (a) L Pld 36, Pts 34
Coventry (a) D Pld 37, Pts 35
Stoke (h) W Pld 38, Pts 38
Sheff U (a) L Pld 39, Pts 38
Colchester (h) D Pld 40, Pts 39
Bristol C (A) W Pld 41, Pts 42
Burnley (h) W Pld 42, Pts 45
Ipswich (a) L Pld 43, Pts 45
WBA (H) L Pld 44, Pts 45
QPR (H) W Pld 45, Pts 48
Sheff W (a) ???????????

Posted By: thebigfeller, Nov 24, 11:31:13