I bet for a living............

The above is a useful introduction but a better example of finding value is using the current market price at sharp sportsbooks to guide what is fair value.

The market will adjust on certain bets as money comes in.
You need to be able to read the markets and books to understand what is moving the line.
Most people who estimate the price on a game know
LESS than the market and the sportsbooks.
Thats why most people lose over the long haul.

Respect the market when finding value.

Say Norwich is 2/1 to win a game at virtually every book including most of the sharp ones.
If you find one book offering 5/2 to 3/1 then thats almost certainly a value play.

Also anytime you can arbitrage/scalp a bet (play both sides and win money regardless of who wins) then obviously one side has huge value and the other is used to limit risk and variance.

Beating sports involves understanding math and probabilty not knowing sports.
Thats sounds strange but its absolutely 100% true.

Anybody picking games because they "like them" is never going to win long term.
They may win for a while but eventually the vig/juice the bookie charges will grind them down.

Posted By: usacanary, Oct 23, 17:21:10