That's exactly the right way if thinking but...

It's even more nuenced than that.

If the top 4 teams are so much better than even the 5th and 6th best sides are unlikely to make it through the playoffs.

Shocker, the best teams over a season have the highest probability of getting promotion.

Becoming good enough for 6th should not be the goal if you want a realistic chance of promotion.

It took Brentford a long time to get out of cycle of selling their best players and being just good enough to NOT get promoted.

Posted By: usacanary, Mar 8, 17:47:07