xG, why it doesn't work.

Everyone can agree that good teams/players overperform vs xG and bad teams/players underperform.

When an average probability is assigned it takes no account of player quality or opposition quality.

Simple example.
Borja is given 0.15 for a chance.
Might be closer to correct for an average champs player....but he isn't.
So the real value of the chance (for Borja) might be 0.25 or better.

That's why better teams/players consistently outperform xG.....
Because the xG values assigned to better players are WRONG....

Posted By: usacanary, Nov 27, 13:40:24