Starmer is better at this than he's usually given credit for

He has form for coming in to something on a wave of promises, delivering something quite different, being deeply unpopular for a few years but then coming through when it matters.

I understand why he did it but I think the mistake, so far, has been to straitjacket which taxes he can raise. Reversing Hunt's NI cuts would have been an obvious choice; any number of other things but he's ruled the main tax levers out. This makes things harder than they need to be. We all knew whoever won the election that taxes would have to go up (and polling supports the idea that the electorate believed neither main party on promises not to raise tax).

Rayner is unquestionably a more likeable person and I'd like to think a Labour party led by her would be capable of winning in 2028/2029. We may yet find out: but my money would be on Starmer staying the course.

He doesn't need to get everything right. The NHS has to look substantially better and things need generally to feel a little less s**t - yes even potholes factor into that - but that's probably enough given that the Tories are probably ending up with Jenrick (one of Tugendhat or Cleverly will carry the votes of the other to make the top two; Badenoch's goose is cooked this time round, barring miracles at the Tory Conference, but she will be back when Jenrick crashes and burns as I think he inevitably will.)

What I think is really interesting is the fragmentation of the tory-labour dynamic in so very many constituencies. A lot - the majority? I don't know but many many more than before - of constituencies now are tory vs reform, labour vs green, tory vs lib dem, a few labour vs lib dem etc. In my oh so humble this can only be a good thing, the two-party system has not served us well for too long and a bit of a shake up is no bad idea.

Sorry, I seem to have gone into ramble mode. Ramble mode now deactivated. I wouldn't bother reading all that but I've written it now so *shrug*

Posted By: Old Man, Sep 20, 10:15:01