Biden says if the polls show he has no chance he'll step down

Nationally it is indeed within the margin of error but in the states where the thing will be decided Trump is more or less ahead in all. Referring to Zelenksy as Putin probably won't hurt him in states whose residents may not have really heard of either. Referring to Harris as Trump in other contexts would be a meaningless mis-speak like what all humans do from time to time.

In context, though, his goose is surely cooked and it's about how to manage the transition to whoever's next. I think just instering Harris ends badly. Of the rest Newsom or Whitmer and ideally a ticket with both of them on it in some order as they will appeal to different constituencies.

Betfair has Trump down to 1.65 to win, with Harris second favourite just under 6 and Biden out to about 11. A few weeks ago Trump was only just under evens. That market is rarely very wrong when it comes to big elections - it did better as the night went on when Trump won the first time out than people like Nate Silver, for all their statistical expertise.

Posted By: Old Man, Jul 12, 09:28:49