The problem is...........

You can be fooled by xGA and xA over small samples.

Lets say a team has a certain xGA above their current number.
Are they unlucky or do they have lower quality players who don't take the chances as well?

If you want to know how much better one team is than another then look at mature betting markets close to game time.
Every possible analysis has been done to shape those lines into place.
Look at big line moves which don't correlate to any injury announcements.

Posted By: usacanary, Jan 6, 16:51:29