The UK basically flattened the curve

by taking the wave over more months starting earlier. I imagine that aggregate cases/deaths are roughly commensurate as despite Macron's best efforts French vaccine rates are (I think) as good as ours in fact a little bit better. I guess this means that the NHS took the strain over a longer time than the French system which has to cope with a more concentrated surge. Omicron risks upending it all obviously. It looks more infectious but we don't yet know if it makes you more or less ill, with a slight suspicion of "less"; or how it interacts with the existing vaccine. I fully expect six-monthly or annual boosters for the forseeable as new strains continue to emerge, driven in turn by the unequal availability of vaccines to richer and poorer countries.

This was dumb luck on our part (contrasted with initial vaccine takeup which was good management on our part compared with most of continental Europe - certainly by Kate Bingham and not any relevant minister, though Matt Handjob's favourite film had a bit part). But I'll take it.

Over time the new strains will tend to be less bad and preventative and prophylactic medicine will tend to improve. But it's never going away - we will live with it, not past it, and there will be a number of deaths from it every year now I suspect for the rest of the lives at least of everyone reading this.

It's the next one that really worries me. Covid for all its awfulness could have been much worse in terms of transmissability or effect. The next one might be worse in both senses. On the bright side, the mRNA technology is an awesome thing and we have battle-tested systems in place now.

So something to take very seriously, with an onus on all of us to act responsibly; but not something to live in dread of either.

In terms of France I don't think Macron is doing well at all. But there are some brilliant people around there and vaccination rates are good. There will be strain on the health system as the fourth wave takes its more concentrated hold, and who knows what omicron holds. But France is a rich and technologically advanced country with a lot of clever people near, if not quite at, the levers of power. Ce aussi passera.

(Je m'excuse pour mon franglais...)

Posted By: Old Man, Dec 7, 21:50:40