I think it gives quite a good sense

of who to be worried about, and how much to worry about them and yourself, which is important given that in the next cple of weeks, people are going to be returning to work and so on

Having said all that, I'm not completely sure I follow his statistic:
if I stand a 50% chance of dying this year but (eg) a 100% chance of catching coronavirus (from which I also stand a 50% chance of dying) does that mean my overall chances of dying this year have remained at 50%, or increased? And if so, to what?

If I do something which exposes me to a 50% of death, and yet I live and do it again, I think I have a 75% chance of death overall - 3 of 4 possible outcomes being death - but I'm not quite sure that's the same.

Posted By: paulg, May 4, 14:42:46