I think everyone is overanalysing the figures

If you look at the data relating to cases, it very much depends on the level of testing and where/how the testing is used. The death data is key. Death rate is inferred from deaths:tests and as test data isn't robust the ratio data isn't robust either.

We aren't going to be able to predict critical aspects like how many NHS workers become unavailable due to covid infection, when any additional ventilators will be available and how people react to long term lockdown.

I think it is best to look at the death data from the countries we can trust that are further along the curve than us. Korea, Italy and Spain. These will give us an idea of how long the peak will last.

My guess is three (pretty grim) weeks to the peak, three-five more until we are at sub 1000 active cases again. We can't attempt to predict the number of deaths from the data we currently have because there are too many unknowns.

The main positive from my point of view over the last few days is that the Chinese tests give false results 30% of the time. This may not sound like a positive point but it provides an answer to the question of whether people can be reinfected or retain immunity. There were cases where people had tested -ve and subsequently tested +ve which raised doubts about covid immunity. These seemingly stem from false testing rather lack of immunity.

Posted By: Timmy_Goat, Mar 30, 12:51:21