I was once involved in a study on this, and beneath the headline figures

it is incredibly complex to actually model. With a virus its relatively easy, because either the virus independently exists or it doesn't.

But something like air pollution is a consequences of economic development, it doesn't exist in a bubble. The pollution may be a direct cause deaths, but the economic processes causing the pollution may be resulting in an overall increase in life expectancy (e.g. life expectancy in China has increased from 68 to 77 in the last thirty years), which far outweighs the impact of air pollution.

And the problem with the current global economy, is that the only way a developing country can become a developed country and significantly raise its standard of living, is through wide scale industrialisation - which means lots and lots of pollution. The only solution without pollution, is for rich countries to just give some of their wealth to poorer countries - i.e. to get them to the developed stage without the need for industrialization. But that is not a very popular political solution in many places.

Posted By: Mecagoenti, Mar 17, 11:14:06