the point is not, and never was, that "expertise" doesn't exist

and is not helpful - it's about what experts in particular fields can and cannot be expected to know and predict - economists for example, are not terribly good at predicting the future - or at least, not predicting it mathematically precise ways, as suggested by some of their models, and as often misunderstood by their audience (leading to a wholesale loss of belief in their use) - Lord King's book about "radical uncertainty" is a good explanation.

Posted By: paulg, Mar 12, 20:28:17