Leeds have a tough game off short rest so lets look at the numbers.

Being away to Brum plus recovery means they wont have much time to work on stuff to play Preston. (same with us against them)

Lets look at the best case scenario where we would be promoted within 7 days from now

Leeds lose on Tuesday and we beat Reading on Wednesday.
Given a min +2 GD swing........

Norwich 87 points +12 GD
Leeds 76 points

At this point we could get promoted at Wigan which would be incredible in front of 5000+ traveling fans.

Theoretically we would be promoted AND crowned champions at Wigan if we won our next two and Shef and Leeds lost both the next 2.

At Wigan
A Norwich win and Leeds loss or draw would see us up.
A Norwich draw and Leeds loss would see us up
(they would be battling a min +13 GD)

I have crunched the numbers via a Monte Carlo simulation and the most likely place we will get promoted is Sheff Wed at home with Stoke away coming in at slightly less.
Crowned champions is most likely Blackburn at home but Stoke away is slightly less.

Posted By: usacanary, Apr 7, 17:13:58

Follow Ups

Reply to Message

Log in


Written & Designed By Ben Graves 1999-2024