Of the last 15 Championship teams to have 40 points after 20 games, 14 have been promoted.

11 automatically and three via the play-offs.

With 75 points usually par for 6th, we'd have to average fewer than 1.3 points a game in our remaining fixtures to miss out.

Across a season that's the form of a team finishing 12th to 14th. Or, in other words, us last season.

Give how tough it is to finish top two and the relative strength/spending power of other clubs (Boro, West Brom, Derby etc), play-offs looks about right.

But automatic promotion absolutely more likely than 7th or below, by some distance.

Posted By: norway, Dec 4, 11:14:27