From a Waccoe stato...

OK, this is after a disproportionate amount of time spent, looking at past tables (back to 2009/10) after 17 games and noting them on an excel spreadsheet.

1. @Cotambear asked if the top of the league was more compressed than usual. Yes, is the answer. The top 8 has 33 - 27 points; generally it's 36 or more, down to 26 or 27. The only time it was more compressed was 2014/15, 32 to 27 points. Even then, only one of the top 6 after 17 games failed to be top 6 at the end of the season (Derby, who were top, with 32).

2. Defeats. 3 defeats (as we have) is certainly not an issue. Fewer than 3 defeats after 17 is unusual - only 9 occasions over 10 seasons including this one has a team in the top 3 had fewer than 3 defeats. The clear 4 best sides of the past 10 years - Wolves last year, Newcastle 2015/16 and 2009/10, and Leicester 2013/14, had all clocked 3 defeats by now. Draws are the issue - we need to win more games, rather than lose fewer games.

3. 30 points. Thirty points is an important benchmark after 17 games. 36 teams before this year have clocked up 30 points. Of those, 15 have finished top 2 out of a possible 18 top-2 slots. 15 have finished in the playoffs. Only 6 times (including Sheff United and Bristol C last year) have a team with 30 points failed to reach the play-offs at least. Most points were Newcastle, with 40 points, 15/16, followed by Southampton (39, 11/12). Sheffield United last year hold the biggest f**k-up trophy, with a 36-point haul after 17 games, and managing a measly 33 from the next 29 games, to finish 10th.

Only 3 auto-promoted 'top 2' teams have done so with fewer than 30 points after 17 games - watford (29) in 14/15; Reading (21) in their 'miracle year' 2011/12 and Norwich (26) in 10/11.

4. Points added. This is quite interesting and I have never really looked at this before. We know a good start will more often than not lead to a good finish; but how many points to you need to add to those gathered in your first 17 games? Auto-promoted teams added an average of 57.7 - almost exactly 2 points per game (29 games remaining). Play-off teams added an average 52.5 points.

The most points added were Reading in 11/12 (auto) and Fulham last year (play-offs) with a remarkable 68. The two highest points-scorers of recent years, Newcastle 09/10 and Leicester 13/14, added 66 and 64 respectively.

The worst points added by a wide margin was Blackpool in 13/14 who started with a very respectable 31 from 17, 4th place, then scraped another 15 (15!!) from the next 29 games, very narrowly avoiding relegation.

We have though had some fairly spectacular collapses, from respectable top 8 places after 17 in 17/18, 13/14 and 11/12, but adding a rancid 34, 31 and 33 respectively. In fact, looking at the '17 games played' tables over the past 10 years, Leeds, Derby and Middlesboro have appeared in the top 8, six times. We are normally good starters, but such rotten finishers that we haven't even managed a play-off place. Derby have been in, and lost, 3 over that period, as have Boro, Brighton and Cardiff, though the latter 3 have at least had the decency to be promoted as well.

5. First, second and third. Of the 27 teams who have been 1st, 2nd and 3rd over the past 9 seasons before this one, 13 have been auto-promoted and 10 have reached the paly-offs. Only Sheff United last year (added 33 points), Derby 14/15 (added 45), and Boro in 11/12 and 12/13 (added 39 and 27 respectively) failed to make at least the play-offs.

CONCLUSION.

History tells us we are highly likely to reach the play-offs, from being in the top 3, with 30 points, after 17 games. It would be an unusual year if we, Norwich and Sheffield United didn't make up 3 of the top 6. But with only 33 in top spot, and a narrow spread across the top 8, no-one has a strong-enough cushion to be reasonably sure. It's far from impossible for a strong side like Villa to get into the top 6 from 11th place and 24 points, but it's unlikely - only 5 times in the past 9 seasons (36 play-off spots). Only once has a team with so few points got into the top 2 (Reading).

We realistically need to at least hit the average points added for promo, 57 or 58. That is, let's say, 17 wins and 6 or 7 draws (5 or 6 defeats), or 18 wins and 4 or 5 draws (6 or 7 defeats) from our remaining games. Too many draws will mess us up. Norwich (3 points ahead of us) have lost 4 already. Sheff United (equal points) have lost 5. We have drawn 6 already.

That's just a lesson of stats and history. It sets aside which sides we think are 'good'. My judgement is, on top of the stats:

Leeds and Norwich seem to be punching above their weight, aided by very good coaches. Sheff United I feel may fall away again (but i thought Cardiff would, last year). Boro and Derby's consistent top 6 finishes show the value of determined and sustained investment, and you would expect both of those to be top 6 again. One, or two, of West Brom, Swansea, Villa and Stoke seem likely to make top 6, given their squad strength. So I'd forecast, at this stage, Leeds, Norwich, Boro, West Brom, Derby and Villa as top 6 come the end of the season.

Posted By: Vivid Data Shark, Nov 13, 21:05:31