Interesting times

Full disclosure: I voted Remain. However, the majority in the referendum was for Leave.

Yes, the Leave campaign lied so egregiously you could argue people were misled; but the Remain campaign (which was so awful it beggars belief - really, really basic stuff Just Done Wrong) also lied. They were two dreadful campaigns all round.

The A50 process is stupid - I think intentionally. On triggering it you immediately impose a timetable which puts you at a severe disadvantage, because you're in a ridiculous negotiating position.

All these calls for Parliament to agree the terms of negotiation are also stupid. Anyone who's done any kind of commercial or political negotiation will see that. If the other side knows your opening position, red lines and so on before you even start you are bound to emerge with a poor deal. It's like playing poker with all the other players knowing what's in your hand, but you don't know what's in theirs.

If Brexit is killed by administrative sclerosis, or by Parliament - or the Lords - voting not to do it, the well-documented mistrust and anger with the political class will go through the roof. Extremists on the right and left will both gain significant political support.

This is not a happy scenario.

I didn't want a Brexit, but the people voted for one, and if one isn't delivered there will be Issues.

If I were advising May I'd tell her to call an election now. The inbuilt advantage Labour enjoys hasn't yet been removed by the boundary people, but arguably Labour is speaking only to its core vote at the minute. All candidates in an election would have to be very clear about their position on Brexit. Interestingly, May's own constituency (in which I live) voted Remain, so I don't know what position she herself would then adopt - that could be so troublesome for her she rules out an election on that ground alone. It's not a safe Tory seat, the Liberals have historically been close challengers and of course they would campaign for In.

It is, I think, defensible for a newly elected Parliament with a clear mandate not to go forward with Brexit to override the referendum. It's certainly not for the current Parliament to do so, and certainly not for the Lords to do so either. Even in that case, UKIP would scream bloody murder and with some justification.

What a f**king mess.

Posted By: Old Man, Nov 3, 13:39:02