...erm...nope...

...you are not parsing what I wrote correctly.

Let's try again. I said: You are wrong if you don't switch with 2/3 probability

-- in other words you have 2/3 chance of being wrong, i.e. not winning the car, if you don't switch

I then said: ... and right with 1/3 probability.

-- in other words you have 1/3 chance of being right i.e. winning the car if you don't switch.

I think said: So you're twice as likely to win the car if you switch.

-- so the optimal strategy is to switch because you have twice the chance of winning if you do.

I never asserted any 100% strategy, because there isn't one. I said switching made it twice as likely you would win the car, which it does.

Hope this helps.

Posted By: Old Man, Nov 2, 19:56:57