forecasts appear more positive

This is the TAF (Terminal Aerodrome Forecast) for Adelaide Airport:

From 23:00 UTC (Monday 6 December 2010 23:00 Greenwich time), Wind: True direction = 360 degrees, speed: 12 knots (22 km/h) (6 m/s).
Minimum horizontal visibility: 10 km or more.
Weather: Light Showers of Rain .
Clouds: Scattered (3-4 oktas), at 5000 feet above aerodrome level (1524 meters).

From 03:00 UTC (Tuesday 7 December 2010 03:00 Greenwich time), Wind: True direction = 220 degrees, speed: 12 knots (22 km/h) (6 m/s).
Minimum horizontal visibility: 10 km or more.
Weather: Light Showers of Rain .
Clouds: Scattered (3-4 oktas), at 5000 feet above aerodrome level (1524 meters).

The following weather phenomena are expected to arise temporarily:

From 17:00 UTC (Monday 6 December 2010 17:00 Greenwich time) at 22:00 UTC (Monday 6 December 2010 22:00 Greenwich time), Minimum horizontal visibility: 5000 m.
Weather: Rain .Clouds: Broken sky (5-7 oktas), at 1200 feet above aerodrome level (366 meters).
Clouds: Broken sky (5-7 oktas), at 5000 feet above aerodrome level (1524 meters).
INTER: Unknown token.

From 22:00 UTC (Monday 6 December 2010 22:00 Greenwich time) at 18:00 UTC (Tuesday 7 December 2010 18:00 Greenwich time), Minimum horizontal visibility: 5000 m.
Weather: Showers of Rain .Clouds: Broken sky (5-7 oktas), at 5000 feet above aerodrome level (1524 meters).

Following weather will take place with a probability of 40%:INTER: Unknown token.
From 02:00 UTC (Tuesday 7 December 2010 02:00 Greenwich time) at 12:00 UTC (Tuesday 7 December 2010 12:00 Greenwich time), Wind: Variable in direction, speed: 20 knots (37 km/h) (10 m/s), with Gusts of maximum speed 30 knots (56 km/h) (15 m/s).
Minimum horizontal visibility: 3000 m.
Weather: Thunderstorms Rain .
Clouds: Scattered (3-4 oktas), at 3000 feet above aerodrome level (914 meters).
Clouds: Scattered (3-4 oktas), at 5000 feet above aerodrome level (1524 meters), cumulonimbus.

The emphasis above is mine
Steady rain & overcast conditions will clear in the morning (up to 22:00 UK time) to broken cloud and showers. Might mean a delayed start whilst they mop up. From 2am UK time there is a 40% chance of a thunderstorm.

What's interesting is that the cloud isn't expected to be filled in; from 22:00 UK time they are expecting 3-4 Oktas of cloud (for non-pilots / meteorologists amongst you that means the sky will be 3 or 4 eighths cloudy, the rest blue sky). This implies to me that the rain will be hit and miss, and an on-off day beckons.

Good luck everyone

Posted By: SCC 28, Dec 6, 16:23:31