You arn't very good at this

On one hand the NFL market is hard to beat and now its about picking out the good ones.

OK, let do the math.

Lest say you were an incredible handicapper who could spot value in the NFL when you bet +800 dogs.

lets say you had a 5% long term edge, which BTW would be incredible against this market

That only changes the winning probability of the +800 dog from 11.11% to 15.5%

Do you now see WHY PHI only had roughly a 8% chance to make the playoff, (+/- 1 or 2%)

Posted By: usacanary on January 11th 2009 at 21:57:37

Message Thread

calling usa canary (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 20:54:22
- are you retarded. (Betting) - usacanary, Jan 11, 21:04:47
  - i only asked if you'd had a bet (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 21:06:17
    - and if you didn't lay the eagles i'm pleased (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 21:08:13
      - and the 8% chance was only reflective of the odds (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 21:13:57
        
        Oh god......... its official (Betting) - usacanary, Jan 11, 21:21:39
        
        i heard they were difficult to beat yes (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 21:24:21
        
        what stunningly stupid logic. (Betting) - usacanary, Jan 11, 21:38:25
        
        it's all about spotting value at the end of the day (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 21:41:26
        
        You arn't very good at this (Betting) - usacanary, Jan 11, 21:57:37
        
        MATHS (n/m) (Betting) - Small, Jan 11, 23:28:04
        
        if you thought the line was wrong (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 21:58:58
        
        LOL! (Betting) - usacanary, Jan 11, 22:22:10
        
        seems a bit OTT (n/m) (Betting) - Charles21, Jan 11, 22:28:55
        
        i think we know who just lost that argument mate (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 22:32:47
        
        and then yesterday (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 22:33:42
        
        and that's why I am a man (Betting) - Charles21, Jan 11, 21:43:09
        
        indeed (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 21:44:47
        
        1.7 next time they meet (Betting) - Charles21, Jan 11, 21:45:50
        
        joint favs for the aussie... (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 21:47:13
        
        Lumping on? (Betting) - Charles21, Jan 11, 21:50:46
        
        dunno (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 21:52:24
- 2 score ball game (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 20:54:52
  - *posession (n/m) (Betting) - SCC 28, Jan 11, 20:56:05

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