If I were Rachel Reeves

I would say look, the world has changed, the US is disengaging and frankly increasingly dangerous to us, defence, trumpiffs and so on, I can no longer stick to what we said in different times about taxes and then just go ahead and do some pulling of the normal levers available to chancellors, ideally wrapped up in some kind of big scale reform/simplification which everyone knows and accepts is long overdue but has been ducked as too difficult by successive chancellors of both parties.

Labour would certainly take a hit, but the Tories are basically on the beach until they replace Badenoch, Farage is doing his best to implode his party as he always does (100% of his previous outfits have ended the same way Reform are headed, with splits and accusations of all the control in the hands of Farage), libs are probably at a high water mark for them, by 2029 they might have results from the overall package to get through it, albeit with a reduced majority (but that is the best they can do in 2029 anyway).

Badenoch is the least effective leader of the opposition that I can recall, she gets virtually every big call wrong; the Tories have better than her even in their reduced parliamentary party, and when they switch, which I reckon they will after the 2026 local elections, they will be much better placed to capitalise on what Labour's doing wrong.

So, take the big hit now, the initial goodwill towards Labour is long gone but there still is not a credible opposition, and by the time the Tories get their act together they should be able to point to some positive outcomes.

Posted By: Old Man on March 27th 2025 at 11:34:50

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