haha, well...

If I were to sum it up I would say:

We are increasingly obsessed with polls.
Polling is hard and often gets things wrong
Polling is not prediction.
Things can happen even when there is a low chance
People are using the new betting markets as a kind of poll but these might be being manipulated.
Is polling good or bad? Probably good overall.

Posted By: Knitted Jesus on October 26th 2024 at 14:20:44

Message Thread

Seems pretty clear that Trump will win (General Chat) - Old Man, Oct 26, 13:42:33
- I voted yesterday (General Chat) - Kev, Oct 26, 16:17:55
- The US electoral college system is bonkers. A legacy of slavery. Unless you live (General Chat) - The Gaffer, Oct 26, 15:08:41
- Allan Lichtman called it for Harris though (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Git, Oct 26, 14:52:47
- Trump won't win. (General Chat) - MORDENCANARY, Oct 26, 14:24:51
  - He will piss it (n/m) (General Chat) - Legacy Fan, Oct 26, 14:37:40
    - Don’t think either will (General Chat) - SCC 28, Oct 26, 14:44:26
- But does it make any difference if he does (General Chat) - Jazzy, Oct 26, 14:20:13
  - Would have been nice for him to stand trial properly for Jan 6th (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 26, 15:00:49
  - I think the worry is that he learns from his ineffectiveness last time (General Chat) - Knitted Jesus, Oct 26, 14:23:15
    - True, but the US has laws and courts (General Chat) - Jazzy, Oct 27, 07:32:20
- Good essay on the polling in the FT today (n/m) (General Chat) - Knitted Jesus, Oct 26, 14:11:10
  - and (n/m) (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, Oct 26, 14:14:37
    - haha, well... (General Chat) - Knitted Jesus, Oct 26, 14:20:44
- I still can't get my head round why millions of Americans (General Chat) - Chicken, Oct 26, 14:01:49
  - Because Trump has multi-billionaires backing him (General Chat) - CWC, Oct 26, 15:28:02
  - Agree, but Boris, Rees Mogg, Truss etc. Yet the right are voted in 15+ years at a time (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 26, 14:23:17
    - The three you mention are horrendous but let’s face it (General Chat) - Legacy Fan, Oct 26, 14:39:50
      - I agree if you listed to someone rationally everything he's done it would disgust (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 26, 14:43:30
  - Its not quite that simple. Its not like Republicans have ever done anything for the poor (General Chat) - Knitted Jesus, Oct 26, 14:17:31
    - They are descriptive, accurate and backed up by facts (General Chat) - Knitted Jesus, Oct 26, 15:18:38
    - I like how you use insulting phrases for what the opposite belief is to you (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Oct 26, 14:32:54
  - because the other side are not addressing the concerns they have (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, Oct 26, 14:09:46
- Luckily he's got a really really great relationship with keir 😳 (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Oct 26, 14:01:20
- Already accepted he has. Right wing politics for some reason is convincing to the masses (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Oct 26, 13:50:07
  - your the reason people vote for right wing parties (n/m) (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, Oct 26, 14:00:44
    - You’re the reason tbf (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, Oct 26, 14:03:43
      - despite my mistake .. (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, Oct 26, 14:10:28
        
        Yes I understood (General Chat) - SCC 28, Oct 26, 14:24:44
        
        Mmmm .... (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, Oct 26, 14:32:51
- Wouldn’t call it clear (General Chat) - SCC 28, Oct 26, 13:48:36

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