That's strange it opened for me and I've never had a subscription. Anyway here you go...

There was little hiding the disappointment. Little room for immediate positives.

When Norwich City signed off for this current international break with a 2-1 defeat at Rotherham United, the reaction to it was as interesting as the team’s start to the 2023-24 Championship season overall.

For some of their supporters, the loss was reminiscent of the previous, damp squib of a campaign in which they finished 13th in the 24-team second tier of English football — a nightmare some had feared would continue into the current schedule.

Goalkeeper Angus Gunn stated Norwich did not deserve anything from a performance that saw them dominate the ball (63 per cent possession), register more attempts on goal (17 to nine), put more of them on target (five to three) and effectively treble Rotherham’s expected goals (xG) number, 1.51 to 0.57.

‘Deserve’ is a strange word in football but, both watching the game unfold and looking through the numbers afterwards, it would still have been a long way from a travesty of justice had Norwich left the New York Stadium with a point or three.

Play: Video

Everything is relative, which may explain the reaction. Norwich went through their seven-game pre-season programme unbeaten and could have preserved that competitive record on that trip to South Yorkshire.

Five games into the Championship campaign, only leaders Preston North End and fourth-placed Birmingham City remain without a loss. Opportunity knocked in Rotherham, and Norwich fell to the ground.

It all felt at odds with the previous four weekends, which had stirred memories of Norwich’s Championship title successes in 2019 and 2021. Perhaps that made it all the more galling.

So what are Norwich capable of this season, what has happened to inspire this good start and where should expectations sit as the action resumes on Saturday at home to Stoke City?

How good have Norwich really been so far?
Firstly, 10 points from your opening five games should not be sniffed at. Norwich supporters are well-versed in what it takes to get promoted from the Championship and know that averaging two points over the 46 matches almost always does the trick.

Two of the teams fifth-placed Norwich have played also feature in the current top seven – Southampton and Hull City – so it would not be fair to write off these opening fixtures as a free run.

Most pleasing is Norwich’s goalscoring.

They lead the division with 14 goals — three more than anyone else — and also their cumulative xG figure of 10.5, which is quite the transformation from a side that went the final two and a half months of last season (over five and a half matches) without scoring once at Carrow Road.

Clearly, five games gone is too small a sample to draw definitive conclusions from any statistics, just like it would be from watching the performances, but it does all offer context to play with.

As for those visuals, Norwich have looked organised and compact without the ball, and well-coached with it. There have been exciting individual performances and fewer defensive errors. Head coach David Wagner’s promise to make Norwich the fittest team in the division also appears to be standing up to early scrutiny.

In short, so far so good.

What has made Norwich look so strong?
This is a key question and it dips into how sustainable Norwich’s start may prove to be.

One thing that has made them look so strong is their physical appearance. The average age of Norwich’s team last season was 25.7 years — only five Championship clubs had a younger average. So far this season, the average is 28; beaten only by West Bromwich Albion (28.4) and Sheffield Wednesday (28.8).

And not only is this season’s team more experienced, it’s also more physical.

Their attacking style has attached itself to those strengths. Norwich’s direct speed in attack is among the Championship leaders, although they continue to be more patient and controlled in possession than the division’s more direct teams.

Last season, Norwich crossed the ball on average fewer than 17 times per game. So far in this one, that figure is up to over 22. Their dead-ball passes, such as set pieces, have led to 22 shots on goal — more than anyone else in the Championship for that metric.

Against the ball, things have tightened up considerably.


David Wagner (Robbie Stephenson/PA Images via Getty Images)
Firstly, Norwich have made life easier for themselves. Last season, they averaged one error leading to an opposition shot on goal every two games. That made for 23 across the season; nine more than 22 of the second tier’s 23 other clubs. It is early days but so far, Norwich have improved to bang-average by making two in the five matches.

There has also been a greater degree of controlling their opponents.

Norwich’s open-play expected goals against (xGA) number of 3.26 is bettered only by Birmingham (2.71) and Preston (2.56), showing how well they have done in their early games to limit their opponents’ chances. There is also an intensity in their work without the ball and a better use of fouls to break up counter-attacks when, at times last season, Norwich’s defending bordered on the naive.

From using repetitive passing combinations through midfield to taking a moment to scan the pitch ahead of every goal kick, there is a deliberate element to Norwich’s play that is showing them to be a well-coached and effective team.

There has also been familiarity. Norwich got the majority of their summer transfer business done early enough to integrate the new players successfully during those pre-season warm-up friendlies.

It has also been a collective effort, but one where key individual performances have been crucial.

Continuing on the defensive side, Gunn became their undisputed No 1 with Tim Krul’s summer exit and has been in excellent form – underlined by his Scotland career, which had seen him concede only an Erling Haaland penalty in five caps before a 3-1 friendly loss to England in his sixth on Tuesday.

Gunn’s goals prevented rate so far this season — the difference between the total a keeper actually concedes and their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure; the higher the number the better the shot-stopping performance — of 1.6 puts him third in the Championship behind Ipswich Town’s Vaclav Hladky (3.4) and Conor Hazard of Plymouth Argyle (2.6).

Midfielder Gabriel Sara won the Championship player of the month award for August and Norwich can perhaps consider themselves lucky that no sizable bids for the 24-year-old Brazilian’s services were received before the September 1 transfer deadline.

In most of his early-season games, Sara has been on a different level to the other 21 players on the pitch. His drive and creativity with the ball have been the difference, and his limited impact against Rotherham influenced the negative result for Norwich.


(Paul Harding/Getty Images)
While being honoured at division-wide level, Sara did not win Norwich’s equivalent award, however. That went to 20-year-old forward and academy product Jon Rowe, who is still to complete a full 90 minutes of senior football, yet is among the Championship’s early leading scorers with four goals in five appearances.

What are the weaknesses they will have to battle?
Rowe has delivered almost 30 per cent of Norwich’s 14 league goals. USMNT striker Josh Sargent had scored three in three games before an ankle ligament injury that needed surgery and is expected to keep him out until January. That underlines some of the fragility in what has been a promising start.

Norwich missed Sargent’s presence in attack against Rotherham in their first game after he was forced off against Huddersfield Town, especially his newfound authority playing centrally and ability to carry the ball forward. Wagner will hope Adam Idah can get closer to his team-mate’s levels once he finds some rhythm with more regular involvement in the weeks ahead.

There was also the deadline-day loan signing of South Korea international Hwang Ui-jo from Premier League side Nottingham Forest. The 31-year-old will now come into contention for his debut having played for his country twice in this international break.

It is hard to say whether Rowe would have made a similar impact on last season’s Championship had injury not ravaged his campaign. As it is, it would be unrealistic to expect any similarly inexperienced forward to sustain such output across the entirety of their first campaign in senior football – but nor would that detract from them being considered a breakthrough star.

What is needed is context to insulate Rowe’s form in these early weeks from what could be increasing expectations over Norwich’s possibilities this season.

The depth of their squad, or otherwise, may prove a far greater issue.


Rowe celebrates scoring against Huddersfield (Jess Hornby/Getty Images)
Wagner has used 19 players in the five games. Only Coventry City, Sunderland (both 18) and Preston (16) have fielded fewer. There are players – such as currently injured summer-signing forward Borja Sainz – who will come into the fold over the coming weeks, but they also face being without midfielder Marcelino Nunez for a month after spraining his ankle while on international duty with Chile.

Nunez’s role has been predominantly from the bench so far this season but it would not take many similar scenarios for Wagner’s playing resources to feel stretched.

Still, unlike in recent Championship seasons, Norwich cannot assume they will have greater depth of quality compared to their rivals in the promotion race.

So what has changed?
Let’s start with the key thing: the atmosphere around the club.

Even in defeat at Rotherham, the travelling support pounded out song after song. They thanked the players and coaching staff at full time, who all made the effort to applaud them in return. It was all a long way from the acrimony of last season’s final road trip to West Brom, when first-team coach Andrew Hughes got caught up, uh, discussing events directly with the supporters.

The change in feeling has been pretty organic.

Supporters arrived at Carrow Road for the opening game against Hull mentally refreshed after a three-month break. All they wanted was to see a Norwich team try, a goal or two, and the chance to enjoy themselves. There was a drummer in the stands to help create atmosphere, Idah won the game in the final moment of added time and since then, little has dissuaded the positive outlook.

Before the next international break begins on October 8, Norwich welcome Leicester City and Birmingham as well as Stoke, and make lengthy trips to Plymouth and Swansea City and a shorter one to Coventry. Those inside the club will hope the improved mood rides out everything, regardless of the results.

All that will come down to the strength of the foundations.

Norwich adding experience to their group in the likes of Ashley Barnes and Shane Duffy means more people willing to speak up if standards drop or team-mates need a nudge. There were fewer people prepared to do that last season and in the end, those voices that were quietened under the weight of being the only ones to speak up.

Keeping Barnes, who turns 34 next month, and Duffy, 32 in January, fit alongside established leaders in Gunn, Kenny McLean and Ben Gibson ahead of Grant Hanley’s eventual return from the Achilles injury that has kept him out since April would stand Norwich in good stead.

Play: Video

The summer arrival of new first-team coach Narcis Pelach from Huddersfield has made a significant impact, too. His level of detail has impressed internally and Norwich’s improvement in understanding where players are, and should be, in relation to their own positions can be credited to his comprehensive training sessions and analysis work.

Wagner’s management and use of the squad has worked well so far, especially in adapting players to the roles needed in his team and solving problems posed by opponents — something Norwich always adapt to as part of their team selection and game planning.

The pre-season drive to bond the squad and improve fitness standards helped, and the intensity has continued into the competitive action. Last season, players would be rewarded with extra days off during match weeks if certain short-term points totals were met, such as taking nine out of a possible 12. There will be incentives on offer again this time, but they are unlikely to compromise the training schedule.

It was only in the final two friendlies – a 2-0 victory over Toulouse of France’s top flight in Austria followed by a home win over leading Greek side Olympiacos by the same score – that the group saw things clicking and began to get excited about surprising some people when the results started to count. They will hope those feelings remain justified.

Much of that will depend on how Norwich and Wagner adapt as the season goes on.

Success in the Championship comes from either being so good at your initial plan teams cannot stop it or evolving into something equally strong once opponents have a handle on what you are trying to do.

The team’s pre-game warm-up now features a drill with all 10 starting outfield players working a ball through their build-up structure from halfway line to goal line: split centre-backs and holding midfielder, a pass in to Sara centrally and then wide to either full-back before moving the ball into the penalty area, where the remaining four players take it in turns to combine for a shot on goal.

Norwich’s sophistication around that basic element will help protect their progress against opposition game plans designed to frustrate them. That will rest on the coaching staff.

Keeping the softer details going, however, is on the players.

Every goal scored in the warm-up is now applauded by several team-mates, however routine the finish. Pelach buzzes around, giving high-fives to as many colleagues as possible. Wagner’s huddles carry similar words and messages to last season but the levels of belief in what is being said in them has been impossible to ignore.

It all sums up Norwich’s promising start and while there is still so much to play out, that may already be enough of an achievement for supporters who just wanted a bit of enjoyment back in their football life.

Posted By: Ken Dodds Dads Dog on October 1st 2024 at 15:18:46

Message Thread

Reply to Message

In order to add a post to the WotB Message Board you must be a registered WotB user.

If you are not yet registered then please visit the registration page. You should ensure that their browser is setup to accept cookies.

Log in