As a neutral observer just looking at the data.

It's clear that in polling the reform party are chopping up almost 50% of the conservative vote.

These are people who would probably never vote Labour.
Come election day if it looks like reform is just a meaningless spoiler vote I could see tactical voting for conservatives in swing districts.
It's looking like Labour will probably win but it will be much closer than this landslide prediction.

Posted By: usacanary on May 31st 2024 at 13:05:05

Message Thread

Election predictor, for those who like that kind of thing (General Chat) - Old Man, May 31, 10:15:32
- As a neutral observer just looking at the data. (General Chat) - usacanary, May 31, 13:05:05
  - But maybe the smarter play for Reform is to let (General Chat) - CWC, May 31, 19:18:22
  - Possibly in some cases. (General Chat) - Snakepit Divorcee, May 31, 14:21:24
  - Not necessarily. Lots in the north supported Brexit (General Chat) - jamesward, May 31, 13:06:27
  - If it wasn't clear... (General Chat) - usacanary, May 31, 13:06:17
- As someone who lives in South Norfolk, i would love this to be true... (n/m) (General Chat) - Waz, May 31, 10:53:54
  - I know one of the candidates... Lord Elvis of Outwell (General Chat) - Worthing Yellow, May 31, 12:41:19
    - Raving looney (n/m) (General Chat) - Jumbo1, May 31, 19:55:58
    - Does he work down the Chip shop? (n/m) (General Chat) - usacanary, May 31, 14:33:21
  - I'd be very surprised (General Chat) - norwaay, May 31, 11:27:34
    - I can see that seat going to the Green Party (General Chat) - Ken Breadstick, May 31, 12:01:37
    - Broadland going Labour also seems a little unlikely (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, May 31, 11:29:40
      - Agree - and when I play with it I keep getting 645 seats (General Chat) - norwaay, May 31, 11:36:28
- That's fun! Does Liz Truss keep her seat? (n/m) (General Chat) - Bravo win or die, May 31, 10:30:25
  - Just about (General Chat) - Old Man, May 31, 10:32:02
    - Iain Dale's attempt didn't last long, mind he said he hated the place he was standing for. (n/m) (General Chat) - DrDublin, May 31, 10:40:56
- Ooh like that (n/m) (General Chat) - Yellalee, May 31, 10:27:49
- Quite interesting - in Yarco, the Reform vote absolutely does give the seat to Labour (General Chat) - Old Man, May 31, 10:17:32

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