Pretty decent methodology for once.
while adding in opponent strength (Rotherham at home vs Leeds away) is important you have to add in days of rest and injury adjustments. (The betting market will)
You then run a Monte Carlo based on a probability of W/L/D for each game.
You then get a bell curve of points distribution probabilities.
Compare this methodology with xG which is some shlub on his couch guessing how good each chance is.
(i e totally subjective)
Do more math and less stupidity.
Posted By: usacanary on March 19th 2024 at 13:27:03
Message Thread
- The supercomputer has spoken (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 19, 12:53:30
- Pretty decent methodology for once. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 19, 13:27:03
- If they’re using bookies odds (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 19, 13:35:56
- Cov have an easier run in and...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 19, 14:06:17
- If they’re using bookies odds (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 19, 13:35:56
- Pretty decent methodology for once. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 19, 13:27:03
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