And BBC

Dire prediction sees shift in UK strategy

James Gallagher
Health and science correspondent, BBC News
The UK's plan has shifted because the scientific modelling showed we were on course for a "catastrophic epidemic".

A strategy of just slowing the spread of the virus, but not trying to stop it, would have overwhelmed intensive care units.

The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government.

Their calculations predicted 260,000 deaths in the UK.

Instead the plan is to drive down the number of cases to very low levels, which the models predict will limit deaths from coronavirus to the thousands or tens of thousands.

However, this approach comes with a major problem - there is no exit strategy.

Without the immunity that would build up if people were infected, then cases would soar as soon as measures are lifted.

The report said these could need to be in place until a vaccine is available, which could take up to 18 months.

We are in this for the long haul.

Posted By: SCC 28 on March 16th 2020 at 22:29:31

Message Thread

If the Gov enforces a lockdown (NCFC) - ingi, Mar 16, 21:35:27
- Looks like being on the way (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 21:55:35
  - Buzzfeed is even less reliable than the Daily Star or EssexCanaryOTBC for accurate content (n/m) (NCFC) - Graham 21, Mar 16, 22:16:50
    - Well I hope government stooge Peston is just as bad (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 22:20:12
      - And BBC (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 22:29:31
        
        Ben, can we have an SCC filter please? (NCFC) - Old Git, Mar 16, 22:55:26
        
        feel bad for lobbying for and wasting a coronavirus category now (NCFC) - Tombs, Mar 16, 23:00:53
        
        Yup, you identified the symptoms but not the cause (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Git, Mar 16, 23:03:02
        
        Yeah I’m sure nobody else would have mentioned it (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 22:58:58
        
        I wanted a WFH revolution but not like this. Damn you, Genie!! (n/m) (NCFC) - CWC, Mar 16, 22:40:56
        
        Sky too - it’s not a competition ffs (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 22:37:27
        
        All 20 pages (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 22:41:19
        
        The BBC? (NCFC) - Agatha Fisty, Mar 16, 22:36:30
        
        I think our way of life will change dramatically for a couple of years. (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 16, 22:35:48
        
        It’s a fucking bad dream (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 22:37:55
        
        It is,we've got to adapt and make the best of it though. We've no choice. (n/m) (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 16, 22:39:09
        
        We could all just piss our pants about it and do fuck all positive just rah rah rah whinge (NCFC) - Tombs, Mar 16, 22:48:48
        
        It was the experts who got it wrong (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 22:53:30
        
        It was the elxelerdwho got it wrong (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 22:52:52
        
        i see (n/m) (NCFC) - Tombs, Mar 16, 22:57:58
        
        Work (n/m) (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 16, 22:36:03
  - buzzfeed (NCFC) - Tombs, Mar 16, 22:10:12
    - Even peston (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 16, 22:16:36
      - 🙄 (n/m) (NCFC) - Tombs, Mar 16, 22:18:44
  - "trust the experts" (n/m) (NCFC) - wolfio, Mar 16, 22:09:48
- Think pubs have to be officially closed for insurance purposes. (NCFC) - Saucerer, Mar 16, 21:51:16
- Son No1 runs a M&B Vintage Inn near Northampton... He says the place (NCFC) - promethian1, Mar 16, 21:41:54
- depends on terms of insurance policy. Ask your/their broker. (NCFC) - CWC, Mar 16, 21:41:10
- gives up (n/m) (NCFC) - Tombs, Mar 16, 21:37:12

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