Old Prof Witty said yesterday that their model thinks

that by people self isolating now if they have symptoms they can reduce cases by 20-30% and that also if whole families in due course self isolate at the right time it will again reduce cases by 20-30%. That seems to be the modelled assumptions.

And then you reduce the death rate by isolating the vulnerable and trying to ensure that the NHS can cope with the numbers.

Regardless of whether or not lockdown measures are in place most in society seem to have moderated their behaviour in some way already.

Posted By: Jim on March 13th 2020 at 12:39:55

Message Thread

UK virus tops 600. 66 million UK residents. Fuck off news, stop banging on about it. (n/m) (NCFC) - ghost of hucks, Mar 13, 12:16:29
- I listened to an excellent interview by a .... (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 13, 16:47:46
- top epidemiologist says nothing to worry about ^^^^ (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Mar 13, 15:04:54
- Exactly right, and this guy nails it too (NCFC) - Charles21, Mar 13, 12:27:17
  - what's happened to the left side of his head? (n/m) (NCFC) - ingi, Mar 13, 12:39:22
- They expect us to get it,the delay phase is so we don't all (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 13, 12:25:14
  - I get the delay phase (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 13, 12:27:27
    - Yes. Compared to everyone else we seem to be trying to reach the peak as soon as possible (n/m) (NCFC) - mr carra, Mar 13, 12:40:11
      - A flatter peak though (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 13, 13:50:37
    - Exactly, how are we flattening the curve... (NCFC) - Merryxmas, Mar 13, 12:33:49
      - Old Prof Witty said yesterday that their model thinks (NCFC) - Jim, Mar 13, 12:39:55
        
        All voluntary then - can’t see any issues there (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 13, 12:51:41
        
        A lot of people are being nudged though tbf. I guess mandatory only required (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 13, 13:50:18
    - Me neither, they've not explained that bit clearly (n/m) (NCFC) - Charles21, Mar 13, 12:32:32
    - Well this doctor just said we need to be isolating ourselves when we get symptoms (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 13, 12:31:51
      - But we know you can pass it on (NCFC) - duke of york, Mar 13, 12:38:02
        
        That does seem a bit of a flaw. Its only emerged in the last day or so hasn;t it? (NCFC) - Jim, Mar 13, 12:41:44
        
        Ahh well,let's just die then. (n/m) (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 13, 12:38:44
      - Everything seems to be voluntary (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 13, 12:36:31
        
        Well from what I saw they are accepting/expecting the virus (NCFC) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 13, 12:41:17
- Here’s another one! (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 13, 12:20:44

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