Some tips on betting.

In the UK they are often refered to as specials.

In the US, they are called prop bets (proposition bets)

Most of the prop bets have really small limits because they are often beatable.

Most of the larger markets such as game result (W L D) have large limits because all the info about the teams is mostly out there and the market dictates a fair price so its very hard to beat. (after the bookies vig)

If you want to beat the online UK bookies easily then concentrate on prop bets.

I have been backed off (banned/limited) from every online bookie in the UK, mainly for hitting soft numbers.

Run the stats on each situation, see if they are using average (mean) numbers instead of median distributions.

The best way to beat prop bets is using Poisson

Wiki link here.

User Posted Link

It sounds/looks complicated but it isnt.

Using Excel you can plug in numbers and get expected distributions and probabilities for most events.

If you know the probability of an event you can then judge if something has value.
i.e . getting 13 to 1 on an event that has a probability of 10%

Posted By: usacanary on April 8th 2011 at 18:59:08

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