Yes.

NFL sides (spreads) are very accurate but still very beatable.
Its a very liquid market meaning the sharpest betting syndicates can get down virtually as much as they want.

For the smaller bettor you can exploit all kinds of stuff just on pure math "even" if you assume the full game lline is 100% correct.
Teasers are beatable, Quarters are beatable, 1st half lines are very beatable.
Scoring in the NFL is distributed meaning certain numbers land more than others. That gives you a mathematical edge in certain spots.

Week 17 is free money week because the lines will move based on motivation.
Example PHI plays DAL at 4.15 pm EST

The early games are at 1.00 EST
For PHI to still have a shot at the playoffs they need TB to lose and either of CHI or MIN to lose.

If you add up the probabilities they only have an 8% chance of NOT being eliminated before the game kicks off. (92% chance of being eliminated)
If you want me to do the math I can.

Currently DAL is small underdog. If PHI are eliminated they will move to being a dog (because they dont care and are out)

So you have a 92% chance of holding dog moneyline tickets on both teams.
(meaning whatever side wins....... you win)

Posted By: usacanary on December 27th 2008 at 19:16:19

Message Thread

If Lita signed permanently... would you be happy with that? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:07:20
- as long as his wages wern't hooge (n/m) (NCFC) - strap_on sally, Dec 27, 18:28:39
  - why would you care about his wages? (n/m) (NCFC) - Charles21, Dec 27, 18:31:22
    - I think going forward.................... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:39:48
      - i completely agree (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Dec 27, 18:53:29
      - footy should be like nfl (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:45:20
        
        Talking of which...... week 17 in the NFL is free money week. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:58:33
        
        great, some tips please (n/m) (NCFC) - Charles21, Dec 27, 19:03:52
        
        see the post "yes" (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:18:35
        
        hmmm well detroit are very bad (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:02:35
        
        Yes. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:16:19
        
        follow up advice. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:26:41
        
        ok (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:30:38
        
        Every thing is easy............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:34:44
        
        well it's good to have a sort of system (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:35:45
        
        System (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:51:52
        
        well any predicitive model is basically a system imo (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:57:04
        
        hmmmm (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:22:07
        
        well dallas around 2.1 (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:25:18
        
        what you are missing............ (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:30:47
        
        yes i'm aware of that (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:33:05
        
        LOL (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:37:39
        
        no idea tbh (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:39:56
        
        see "follow up advice" (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:28:18
        
        I guess that why I do this for a living. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:27:24
        
        sure is, you've lost me completely (NCFC) - Charles21, Dec 27, 19:33:14
        
        not exactly an idiots guide lol (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:34:49
        
        FWIW I played at the WSOP the last 2 years. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:40:36
        
        yeah i remember you mentioning the WSOP (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:45:11
        
        PLO is the worst tournament game ever. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 19:56:58
        
        yeah i meant more plo as cash games really (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 19:57:57
        
        Impossible though (n/m) (NCFC) - Charles21, Dec 27, 18:58:24
        
        The talk is the cap should be based on............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:59:44
    - indeed some local businessman (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:38:49
      - I have a feeling.............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 27, 18:46:15
        
        the problem with that is (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:48:30
- If that happened then I'd wouldn't worry about relegation at all (NCFC) - pants, Dec 27, 18:09:53
  - not sure where the money for next season (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:11:46
- not sure anyone wouldn't be (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 27, 18:09:16

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